A lot of players seem to be on the cusp of rebounding value, and a lot more might have to wait until 2025 (or later). And then there's Davante Adams. Let's see what's what as we head into Week 5.
One of the biggest news blurbs yesterday concerns Adams' reported interest in departing Vegas, which not coincidentally coincided with the Raiders reportedly opening the door to trading their marginally fading star. Adams will turn 32 in December. He can still be a 90-1,200-8 guy, but probably only with monster targets. One report highlighted the Jets as one of several potential landing spots, which would mean ever more trouble for those rostering Garrett Wilson.
Any team that takes him (and his huge cap hit) probably is pushing for a Super Bowl run. There's no other good reason to give up what would likely be a fairly good draft pick (or two) for a guy whose cap hit will balloon to about $44 million if he's not cut loose next offseason. On a great team, Adams' customary 10 targets per game probably would drop to seven or eight at the most. If you can sell now at close to his draft value, I would
That would leave Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, and Brock Bowers as the Raiders' primary receivers. A questionable QB situation (whether Gardner Minshew will lose his job to Aidan O'Connell) muddies things a bit. Still, this would become a much simpler depth chart, to the benefit of WR-needy fantasy managers. This makes Meyers a slight buy-low option in trades and Tucker a reasonable add in deeper leagues.
Elsewhere, Kareem Hunt has gone from unrosterable to a must-add-in-all-leagues RB. He looked mostly finished last year. But rookie Carson Steele hasn't helped his case, and apparently KC doesn't trust Samaje Perine to carry the load. The Chiefs have already lost three of their five best offensive players. It's safe to say they're not finished acquiring talent to backfill a suddenly thinned-out group. So expect a lot of player value volatility these next few weeks.
Finally, have been trying to think of a great reason for managers to continue rostering Christian Watson. I've got nothing. I would drop him for Dontavion Wicks in a heartbeat. Some of you beat the drum about Wicks this summer. It took me a while. Now I'm on board.
Watson was a big-play receiver at North Dakota State. He was also used sparingly, averaging 2.1 catches per game as a sophomore, 1.9 as a junior, and 3.6 as a senior. Yes, he was generally their #1 WR. But the WR-desperate Packers reached for him with the 34th overall pick in 2022. They'd just lost Davante Adams and were trying to retool at receiver to keep Aaron Rodgers happy. (I'm exaggerating, but not entirely.)
Watson flashed as a rookie, in part, because he was in an ideal situation. The #1 WR was the ceiling-capped Allen Lazard. The #3 WR was 32-year-old Randall Cobb. The 2024 Packers look entirely different. Watson's mounting injury woes surely have hindered his development, he's been leapfrogged by Jayden Reed, and Wicks (and/or Romeo Doubs) might not be far behind.
It pains me because I believed in Watson this summer -- that he'd stay healthy enough to push for 65+ catches and 900+ yards. Now he might be lucky to crack 35 and 500. He'll frustrate managers more than help them, and that's one of the surest signs it's time to move on.
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