Last night I examined every 2023 team that had six wins or less. By the start of the fantasy playoffs, all of these franchises (with the possible exception of the Giants and Titans) were essentially eliminated from postseason contention. They had nothing to play for. Now, that doesn't mean their effort diminished. Players still compete. It's a game. They want to win. They're angling for incentive bonuses, contract extensions, etc. None of that has changed.
But is there a risk to rostering great players on bad teams? Is there a greater probability that they'll sit down the stretch -- maybe because of an injury they'd otherwise play through if they were competing for a playoff spot? Or is it at all possible that players at higher-risk positions (like running back) might be a little more cautious than usual?
We saw this for years in the semi-meaningless Pro Bowl, when some of the league's top running backs consistently rushed for minimal yards with painful inefficiency. Why risk an ACL or Achilles tear?
But yes, the regular season matters. Everyone's trying hard. And yet, there are signs that rostering great players on bad teams frequently leads to disappointment late in the season. Let's quickly run down each "bad" 2023 team.
For the Patriots, Rhamondre Stevenson missed the entire fantasy playoffs (for our purposes, that's Weeks 15-17). Demario Douglas -- the only semi-relevant WR -- averaged 8.6 fantasy points. Douglas had more incentive to play as a rookie auditioning for a meaningful 2024 role. But even his targets and receptions dipped in those final games.
For Tennessee, Derrick Henry managed 5.0 points, then 21.4, then 4.2 during the fantasy playoffs. DeAndre Hopkins had 4.1, 4.0, and then 20.2. Collectively, these outputs were well below their season averages. In isolation, that's four atrocious performances out of six.
The doomed Chargers had no chance once Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen went down in Week 14. Both missed the fantasy playoffs, while Austin Ekeler had 7.8, 11.6, and 4.0 points. Some might argue Ekeler was washed up regardless. But that's not entirely true. He averaged 7.8 points in the fantasy playoffs and 14.7 in every other game. 14.7 is solid -- not Ekeler-like, but solid. Good enough to start every week. But down the stretch, he faltered in a diminished offense.
The Cardinals were outliers, with Kyler Murray rounding into form after missing the first half of the season, and James Conner posting monster numbers throughout the fantasy playoffs. Can't explain it, and it's fascinating.
In Carolina, the resurgent Adam Thielen scored single-digit points in two of his three fantasy playoff contests while hitting 15.4 in the third. Not bad, and also not what managers were hoping for after his first-half explosion.
The Giants' Saquon Barkley was playing for a big contract, so he was entirely incentivized to leave it all on the field (and of course, not get hurt). He amassed 19.4 points in one fantasy playoff outing and 5.7 and 8.8 in the other two. That comes to 11.3 points per game compared to 17.2 in every other game. Not good.
Finally, Washington was a mixed bag. Terry McLaurin dominated in one fantasy playoff contest (26.7 points) and was terrific in another (16.7), leaving him with only one single-digit clunker (8.0). But Brian Robinson sat in Weeks 15 and 16 after injuring his hamstring in Week 13 and then had 11.6 points in Week 17. Maybe if they'd been 6-7 instead of 4-9 heading into the fantasy playoffs, Robinson would have given it a go. Who knows. It's still notable because it follows a fairly consistent pattern.
There are exceptions. There are *always* exceptions. And this is only for 2023. More study might bolster or weaken these initial conclusions. For now, we should be aware of the potential risks to rostering great players on bad teams. The Patriots are still a partially broken franchise, and I'd be shocked if Rhamondre Stevenson is productive (or even playing) in Weeks 15-17. The same goes for the Panthers and Diontae Johnson.
There are four other 1-4 teams with better shots at turning things around: the Rams, Jaguars, Bengals, and Browns. If any of them fall to 1-6, I'd bail on their stars immediately. Trusting Kyren Williams on a 3-10 Rams squad? No thanks. Betting on Nick Chubb or Amari Cooper (if he's still on the team) if Cleveland's season goes down the tubes? Not a chance.
These next 2-3 weeks will tell us a lot about which great players are high-risk absentees or disappointments for the fantasy playoffs.
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