Amari Cooper has joined the Bills. It's a somewhat ideal landing spot for a 30-year-old who (presumably) can still be a 1,200-yard receiver. And we all pretty much know what this means fantasy-wise: Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman take hits, while Dalton Kincaid's ascent might be delayed a bit.
Meanwhile, the 1-5 Browns are practically bailing on the season. Could they climb back to .500? Sure. Maybe. Possibly. But their final four contests are against the Chiefs, Bengals, (probably much better) Dolphins, and Ravens. So yeah, they're essentially done, which makes their loyalty to Deshaun Watson that much more confusing -- unless they're afraid to learn whether Jameis Winston is better, forcing them to make a roster decision they can't afford to make.
Fantasy-wise, Nick Chubb's value drops, with the understanding that late-season usage make less sense as the franchise looks to 2025. Maybe David Njoku is the only winner. But in the end, it might not matter if this is only the beginning of a seemingly inevitable dismantling.
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Davante Adams has joined the Jets, and again, not much needs to be said because you already know what this means: Garrett Wilson's value takes a hit, Allen Lazard's lesser value takes a hit, Aaron Rodgers gets a slight boost -- though I still don't view him as a top-16 QB. For Vegas, Brock Bowers might be the biggest winner, and a healthy Jakobi Meyers *should* be better, though we'll see. The rest of the receiving corps is a crapshoot.
As for the nearly 32-year-old Adams, he almost assuredly be "fine." Will he be great? Probably not. He had 791 targets in the past five years. That's the most in the league. Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill tied for #2 with 752. No one else had more than 668. Adams' dominance has been talent driven and target driven. Reduce his targets from about 10 per game to maybe 7-8, plus more competition for touchdowns, and he's looking at a roughly top 20-24 WR ceiling.
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Have long been fascinated by fringe WR starters, and not generally the "good" kind of fascination. This has been a steady FF4W theme for the past decade: Investing in a tertiary wideout on draft day generally is worse than investing in a handcuff RB, or at times even a third-string RB.
Let's examine this a little more closely. Through Week 6, here's each team's third-ranked preseason WR based on ADP, as well as their points per game. An asterisk (*) means they're performing better than their ADP:
49ers -- Ricky Pearsall -- WR80 ADP -- WR171 Actual
Bears -- Rome Odunze -- WR39 ADP -- WR66 Actual
Bengals -- Jermaine Burton -- WR71 ADP -- WR141 Actual
Bills -- Curtis Samuel -- WR52 ADP -- WR105 Actual
Broncos -- Troy Franklin -- WR78 ADP -- WR102 Actual
*Browns -- Elijah Moore -- WR114 ADP -- WR97 Actual
*Buccaneers -- Jalen McMillan -- WR106 ADP -- WR104 Actual
Cardinals -- Greg Dortch -- WR82 ADP -- WR84 Actual
*Chargers -- Quentin Johnston -- WR72 ADP -- WR50 Actual
Chiefs -- Marquise Brown -- WR45 ADP -- WR171 Actual
*Colts -- Josh Downs -- WR68 ADP -- WR13 Actual
Commanders -- Dyami Brown -- WR98 ADP -- WR98 Actual
*Cowboys -- Jalen Tolbert -- WR83 ADP -- WR40 Actual
Dolphins -- Odell Beckham Jr. -- WR87 ADP -- WR171 Actual
Eagles -- Jahan Dotson -- WR70 ADP -- WR120 Actual
Falcons -- Dylan Drummond -- WR125 ADP -- WR171 Actual
*Giants -- Darius Slayton -- WR86 ADP -- WR45 Actual
Jaguars -- Gabe Davis -- WR59 ADP -- WR67 Actual
Jets -- Malachi Corley -- WR81 ADP -- WR163 Actual
Lions -- Isaiah Williams -- WR111 ADP -- WR171 Actual
*Packers -- Romeo Doubs -- WR54 ADP -- WR51 Actual
Panthers -- Xavier Legette -- WR62 ADP -- WR68 Actual
Patriots -- Javon Baker -- WR103 ADP -- WR171 Actual
*Raiders -- Tre Tucker -- WR107 ADP -- WR63 Actual
*Rams -- Demarcus Robinson -- WR84 ADP -- WR74 Actual
Ravens -- Devontez Walker -- WR91 ADP -- WR171 Actual
Saints -- Equanimeous St. Brown -- WR109 ADP -- WR171 Actual
*Seahawks -- Tyler Lockett -- WR51 ADP -- WR39 Actual
Steelers -- Van Jefferson -- WR117 ADP -- WR117 Actual
Texans -- Tank Dell -- WR29 ADP -- WR53 Actual
Titans -- Tyler Boyd -- WR79 ADP -- WR89 Actual
Vikings -- Lucky Jackson -- WR110 ADP -- WR171 Actual
In all, 10 of these 32 WRs are performing better than preseason market expectations, two are performing at expectations (ADP = scoring rank), and the other 20 are performing worse. Of the 10 performing better, five are outside the top 50, with most of those being well outside the top 50.
That leaves five guys out of 32 inside the top 50: Quentin Johnston, Josh Downs, Jalen Tolbert, Darius Slayton, and Tyler Lockett. Of these five, Johnston was widely viewed as benchable until his Week 2 breakout. Then a lot of managers rushed out to add and/or start him. These past three games he's hit 12.4 points, 2.3, and 5.2.
Some of you wisely pounced on Slayton ahead of Week 5 when Malik Nabers was out, and you were rewarded with a sizable output. Then a lot of people jumped on the bandwagon ahead of Week 6, when he was merely streamable with 11.7 points.
Downs, Tolbert, and Lockett have been the most consistent producers, with Downs leading the way. That's three fairly reliable fantasy scorers out of 32 -- and only one inside the top 38 WRs (Downs)
Now compare "undraftable" WRs (with some exceptions like Tank Dell and Rome Odunze) to similarly "undraftable" RBs. Here's a sample of guys who weren't even in the top 50 preseason RBs based on ADP: Bucky Irving (RB52), Jordan Mason (RB54), Braelon Allen (RB55), Ray Davis (RB56), Tyrone Tracy (RB57), and Tank Bigsby (RB65). That doesn't even include spot starters like Cam Akers and Trey Sermon, or even late additions like Kareem Hunt.
If you want a slim chance at a solid payout, go with a team's #3 WR in the final round. If you want a much better chance at a much bigger payout, go with a comparably priced backup RB a couple rounds earlier.
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