Did a quick scan of your final score predictions. Much easier when no one comes very close (thanks for that!). Rick Esterly and Adam Noslekim were both nine points off. So congrats to them.
As we know, Dallas managed to secure the W -- their 14th victory over the Giants in their last 15 matchups. Here are some fantasy takeaways.
For the Cowboys, Rico Dowdle inched further into bell cow territory with 11 carries and a catch. His touch total has increased steadily from nine in Week 1 to 11 in Weeks 2 and 3, and then 12 last night. I still don't think he'll be turned loose. Yesterday I suggested his optimal per-game range was 11-13 carries. The touchdown was great. Managers should be pretty happy with his 13-1 fantasy points. But temper expectations. He's still too TD-dependent, and he might remain that way all season.
It's notable that Jake Ferguson served as Dak Prescott's #2 receiver. He was essentially the #1 last week. Until/unless Jalen Tolbert becomes a more consistent presence, it's looking like Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb could see a majority of Dak's looks.
As for Dak, his carries are a concern, and also I suppose not surprising. After peaking in 2018 with 4.7 rushing attempts per contest, he had only 3.2 last season. Now he's at 1.8. He had six rushing scores per year his first three seasons. He's had only five since the start of his 2021 campaign.
His season-ending injury in 2020 might have contributed to a shifting approach that put less weight on running. Who knows. But at 31 years old, he's more of a pocket passer than ever before. That, in turn, has lowered his ceiling a bit. Wishing I hadn't drafted him as early as I did.
Meanwhile, the last time Daniel Jones faced the Cowboys (last September), he had had 43 yards on 13 carries. In fact, in four full games in 2023, he averaged 8.5 carries. That was up from 7.5 the year before, 5.6 the year before that, 4.6 the year before that, and -- as a rookie the year before that -- 3.8. This is the opposite of Dak. Jones has been using his legs more and more . . . until this year. The decline is even more noticeable when factoring a significant drop in efficiency. 22 carries for 71 yards is rough. Whatever struggles he's faced over the years (many, many struggles), managers usually could count on a few points on the ground. Not anymore.
This has put more weight on the running game. But Devin Singletary is now down to 3.9 YPC. The surprisingly undefeated Seahawks are up next. While Singletary's job is incredibly safe at the moment, it's unclear whether he's a better fantasy option than about 75% of the current RB starters. He benefits in a top-heavy offense, and he also has the misfortune of playing for one of the worst-scoring teams.
Malik Nabers' apparent concussion was another of many "ugh" moments this year. He's on pace for 221 targets, which would break Marvin Harrison's record (205). Harrison averaged 12.8 that season; Nabers is averaging 13.0. If the rookie is okay for Week 5, he'll continue his push for what could realistically be a 150-1,700-12 campaign. In dynasty leagues next summer, he'll probably be an easy first-round pick.
And I've talked about Wan'Dale Robinson each week, because he needed to be talked about. Ranked him #133 overall this summer compared to an overall-250 ADP. Managers who took a flyer on him probably feel great, or even better than great. Robinson is a good example of how to spot undervalued WRs. New York has no clear #3 WR, a middling-at-best running game, and a quarterback desperately trying to keep his job. Robinson had an insanely low WR77 ADP. It didn't add up. Most #2's finish in the top 60. His floor was around WR60. He should have been drafted in all deep leagues. Now it's clear he should be rostered in nearly every league.
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