Two seasons ago, the 3-7 Jaguars somehow overtook the 7-3 Titans by winning six of their final seven games to claim only their second division title of this century. They were an up-and-coming franchise poised to make noise for years to come. And the Bengals -- fresh off a Super Bowl appearance where they led with 90 seconds remaining -- feel short in the AFC title game on a last-second field goal. They were one of a handful of seemingly long-term Super Bowl frontrunners.
Now they're both 0-3. Jacksonville probably will lose next weekend in Houston. Cincinnati is also on the road, facing the suddenly competitive Panthers.
I'm generally uneasy about rostering must-start players on bad teams. There's no evidence to support that anxiety. Need to actually put some research into it. But for now, conventional wisdom would suggest that if the Jags and Bengals are something like 4-11 or 5-10 heading into Week 17, I would guess there's a higher likelihood that players battling injuries will sit. These players who might otherwise start on teams competing for the playoffs or postseason seeding. Instead, in meaningless games, there's a real risk that guys like Ja'Marr Chase, Travis Etienne, and Joe Burrow won't play a full game, if at all.
In the 14-team PFFL league, I drafted Christian Kirk in the sixth round and Brian Thomas in the eighth. Both are fringe fantasy starters until/unless Trevor Lawrence and the offensive line snap back into form. I need to prepare for the possibility that, entering their Week 12 bye, Jacksonville will be no better than 4-7, and that might be generous. There are no gimmes these next seven weeks: @Texans, Colts, @Bears, Patriots, Packers, @Eagles, Vikings, @Lions. I count two to four wins, assuming they play much better in October and November.
The winless Bengals also have a Week 12 bye. In the interim they'll play @Panthers, Ravens, @Giants, @Browns, Eagles, Raiders, @Ravens, @Chargers. 4-7 is doable. 5-6 seems like a stretch unless they beat Baltimore at least once. Chase surely won't risk a potential $130-$140 million payday on meaningless games. Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins have dealt with enough injuries in their young careers to warrant a more conservative approach for this franchise if their season is over by mid-December.
Burrow is already on pace to take 45 sacks this year, and I've written before about his excessive sack rate, and how it could impact his career longevity. Meanwhile, Lawrence has already reached 11 sacks, putting him on pace for 62. He's never taken more than 35 sacks in a season. Lawrence has never faced this kind of pressure. It's upending the offense, and by extension, capping every skill player's ceiling.
Maybe both teams will turn things around. But they no longer have room for error.
For Buffalo, not much to say. Josh Allen has far exceeded my reduced expectations, showing that he can be elite even without his top two WRs from the past few years. He now leads all QBs in fantasy points. As for Washington, Jayden Daniels is #2 in QB fantasy points. Simply incredible. As shared this summer, he's the Commanders' best quarterback since Robert Griffin III, and by the time his career is over, Daniels might be the greatest this franchise has ever seen.
Also notably, Austin Ekeler needed only five touches to score 13.7 points. Brian Robinson needed 17 touches to score 10.7. Robinson has out-touched his backfield complement 50-22. Ekeler's fast start is no fluke, and it wouldn't be shocking if he outproduces Robinson this season.
And Terry McLaurin finally put up nice numbers. He's led his team in targets in two straight games. That's one of the keys to keeping him in the top 30. The rest comes down to chemistry with Daniels, which seems to be improving each week.
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