With four straight AFC East titles under their belts, the 2024 Bills are at serious risk of ceding divisional dominance to Miami. This is not the same offense or defense of years past, and it showed early in their Week 1 home matchup against the underwhelming Cardinals when they faced a 3rd-and-6 in their own territory, trailing 17-3 with 1:31 left in the first half.
That marked the first time Josh Allen targeted Khalil Shakir, who converted a first down on a 19-yard reception, eventually leading to a touchdown and a crucial momentum swing.
Shakir ended up leading all Bills WRs in fantasy points (13.2). With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis long gone, the former fringe fantasy starter has become an X-factor, especially in deeper leagues. There are a lot of vacated 2023 targets up for grabs. Having caught 42 of the last 48 balls thrown his way (an insanely high 88%, the 24-year-old Shakir has a good shot at becoming this franchise's new alpha (or more likely co-alpha) wideout.
And so he's one of the most important players to watch tonight. Because Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins are almost destined to remain role players, and it's only a matter of time before second-round rookie Keon Coleman asserts himself as a 1,000-yard receiver. But Shakir remains a mystery. Sometimes tertiary options step up when "next man up" WR situations arise. Other times, they're not well suited for bigger roles. We'll see which way Shakir goes tonight.
As for James Cook, he's probably starting in most leagues after looking good on 22 touches last week. And as shared earlier this summer, he has a big yellow flag based on limited usage in college. I remain comfortably "in" on Ray Davis. The rookie should be rostered in most leagues, with the caveat that Allen probably will continue to dominate goal-line touches.
What about Dalton Kincaid? Ugh. I pegged him as a fantasy bargain. Last week he had only one catch for 11 yards. There's room in this offense for the former highly touted TE to find his footing in the fantasy top 10. I still believe in him and would buy low in deep leagues.
For Miami, why did most people (including me) rank De'Von Achane so high during the preseason? He dealt with injuries last year, and he's already hurt in Year 2. Also, why did most people (not me) rank Raheem Mostert so high? I placed him 32 spots below his ADP, just ahead of Trey Benson. Yes, rookie backup Trey Benson. That's how much I faded the aged Mostert. It would be a minor miracle for him to finish the year in the top 35.
With Mostert out tonight, and with Achane questionable, all eyes should be on Jeff Wilson and (if active) particularly Jaylen Wright. The Dolphins' backfield might look wholly different fantasy-wise after tonight. A Wilson or Wright breakout could render Mostert droppable in most leagues. Between the two backups, Wright is the most intriguing. Although probably not bell cow material, he could give managers headaches if he does enough to merit more looks in the future.
Through the air, nothing needs to be said about Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, of course. Tua Tagovailoa remains undervalued in fantasy, thanks in large part to (arguably) the league's best collection of yards-after-the-catch pass-catchers (including their RBs). Tua is certainly talented enough to be a long-term NFL starter. He also benefits from operating with current personnel. After leading the league in passing yards last season, he looks poised to exceed his preseason QB14 ADP expectations.
I've got the Dolphins winning 30 to 19. Share your predictions below.
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