Last night was a fitting capper to a strange (in fairness, they're always a little strange) opening two weeks. In the first 43 minutes, Darnell Mooney had zero points. 17.8 points later, he probably helped some of you win. Drake London had 6.4 points more than halfway thru the final frame, then collected 11 more points to reassure managers who snagged him as early as the second round. Kirk Cousins looked entirely benchable before throwing TD passes to both Mooney and London.
Why did I rank Kyle Pitts as the overall TE1? Are you all ready to pounce? Have at it. He was only 20 years old when he first took the field as a rookie. That year he produced 68 catches for 1,026 yards, and he hasn't come close to matching it since. He's now on pace for a 51-391 line.
Cousins' performance should keep rookie Michael Penix at bay for at least couple more games. And Bijan Robinson -- who's on pace for a healthy 85 targets -- simply needs scoring opportunities to push toward eliteness.
On the other side of the ball, the "big three" of Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and Devonta Smith carried the offense. Former #16 overall pick Jahan Dotson took a backseat to former UDFA Britain Covey, a 27-year-old who entered this contest with four career catches. Dallas Goedert averaged 5.8+ targets per outing in four of his last five campaigns. Even with Brown sidelined, Philly's longtime #1 TE mustered only four targets after getting five looks in Week 1.
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Connecting the dots on last night, NFL teams are averaging 1.06 TD passes per game. For context, it was 1.70 only four years ago. 1.06 is the lowest mark since 1978 (1.04). The 0.94 rushing TDs per game is the second-highest average in the past 35 years. Not surprisingly, this isn't limited to scores. Teams are averaging the second-fewest passing yards per game since 1979 and the most rushing yards per contest since 1987.
Meanwhile, teams are averaging 2.39 field goal attempts per game, which is the highest in league history.
Small sample size, etc. But it can't be ignored. Through two weeks, compared to preseason market values, running backs have gained a slight yet meaningful edge vs. quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. And when teams lean into the run, the game clock often moves faster. That generally means fewer offensive plays, which further constrains passing attacks.
Then there are the recent significant injuries to star WRs. Hurts losing A.J. Brown damages Hurts. Brock Purdy losing Deebo Samuel damages Purdy. Matthew Stafford losing Puka Nacua / Cooper Kupp completely upend his otherwise streaming appeal. And so on.
How will this end? Who knows. But so far it's a fascinating correction of sorts to a recent trend, which has seen more WRs going in the early rounds. Running backs used to dominate the first 20-30 picks. Everyone wanted at least one bell cow. If you landed LaDainian Tomlinson and Deuce McAllister, you were set.
For the past few years, WRs increasingly have been viewed as safer investments. Their value has skyrocketed at RBs' expense. Yet if this year's numbers don't change much, we could see more bullishness about RBs next summer. Not exactly a return to regular RB-RB draft openings. But certainly greater interest in landing bell cows over #1 receivers.
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