One year ago, the NFL season kicked off with one of the biggest statement wins for the Lions in decades, as they beat the defending champion Chiefs on the road. K.C. gets a redo tonight, but perhaps with an even tougher opponent. Let's break down the fantasy implications.
For the Chiefs, there are obvious things and cloudy things. The obvious include (obviously) Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, and Travis Kelce. My slight concerns about Pacheco have been documented throughout the summer. He had 342 touches last season and, realistically, K.C. won't do that to him again. Granted almost 100 of those touches were in the playoffs. But his playoff efficiency paled in comparison to his regular-season efficiency, and while we could chalk up some of that to tough competition, I think there were other factors.
I expect Samaje Perine to get 6+ touches either tonight or next weekend and perhaps ramp up to 8+ by October. Pacheco is still, and will remain, "the guy." But keep tabs on his usage, including in the passing game (where Perine shines).
The WR corps is easier to understand than last year's, partly because Hollywood Brown is out, and mostly because the top two receivers are more clear-cut than last preseason's top two receivers. Yes, last year I was convinced the duo of Kadarius Toney (WR45 ADP) and Skyy Moore (WR48 ADP) formed a great late-draft hedge. Instead, they flopped in Week 1 and never recovered.
Now this corps is led by Rashee Rice and rookie Xavier Worthy, with Brown looming once he returns. I've long believed Brown is overrated in fantasy, and his move to Kansas City hasn't changed that. There's also a chance Rice could be suspended this season. Among all playmakers in this game, my primary focus will be on Worthy, who set an NFL Combine record for the fastest 40-yard time (4.21 seconds). One of the league's fastest receivers, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, made a name for himself in this Mahomes-led offense. Worthy is arguably more talented. We'll see if it translates on the field.
For Baltimore, many eyes will/should be on the new-look backfield -- and by "new-look" I mean Derrick Henry. The 30-year-old has led all RBs in carries for four of the past five seasons. The only time he didn't was in 2021, when he was on pace for 465 carries before getting knocked out for the season. For context, Jonathan Taylor led all running backs that year with . . . 332 carries.
Henry is a throwback football player in all the best ways. He also showed his age last season with career lows in yards per carry. We'll see if he can outperform his RB9 ADP in perhaps the best offense he's ever played in.
And that brings up Lamar Jackson, who will probably become the most prolific QB rusher in history when he hangs it all up. How might he cap Henry's ceiling, especially near the goal line. And, how will Henry cap *him*, if at all?
Meanwhile, Isaiah Likely played sparingly last year when Mark Andrews was active. But we saw enough to know Likely is one of the league's best backup TEs. There will be some fantasy freak-outs tonight if, for example, Andrews finishes with a 6-70-0 line and Likely finishes with a 4-46-0 line. Right now, the pecking order is clear. We'll see if that continues.
And while Zay Flowers is a known commodity, fellow former first-rounder Rashod Bateman isn't. Still, there's a realistic chance that Bateman will (a) stay healthy, and (b) we can fill in the rest. Because a healthy Bateman should crush his WR75 ADP. While rookie Devontez Walker might make a little noise, Bateman should be a top-3 receiving option.
Not doing final score predictions the same way this year. Might sound strange, but scrolling through 50+ comments around 11:30pm on Thursdays and Mondays to figure out who won -- and then figure out what to write them -- is more than I can take on with three kids. But . . . feel free to share your guess, and if you get it right (or even get closest), shout it out the following day. With that in mind, I'll go 23-17 Chiefs. Most importantly, good luck with whoever you're starting.
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