Some of you might have guessed today's main topic. We'll get to last night's game in a moment. First, for the fourth or fifth time these past six weeks, I want to discuss Christian McCaffrey.
On August 1st I shared research on high-touch RBs' production the following season. It included this implicit warning: "25 times a running back at least 27 years old has had 400+ touches. 23 of those times (92%), they've regressed statistically the following year." CMC had a huge red flag. He didn't deserve to be the near-universal #1 pick. He would have to defy history and logic. It didn't make sense.
Six days later, I reminded readers why CMC dropped on my draft board. Three weeks after that, I shared another warning about CMC while hyping Jordan Mason (who I ranked 53 spots ahead of his ADP) and rookie Isaac Guerendo (92 spots ahead of his ADP).
Most of my posts are opinion-focused, laced with statistics. But my constant drumbeat about CMC was statistics-focused. My opinion took a backseat. Numbers can be misinterpreted, but they don't lie. And the numbers showed the Niners' star running back was a high-risk regression/injury risk. So that's exactly what I expressed three times in August. It also influenced how I advised people to draft, what value to assign to CMC as a keeper, etc.
It all happened sooner than expected, though it did *happen* as expected. His preseason calf injury still hasn't healed, so he missed Monday Night Football. He has a short week to get healthy for Week 2. And unfortunately for managers who drafted CMC, Jordan Mason absolutely shined in relief, compiling a CMC-like 28-147-1 rushing line, plus a five-yard catch. Mason's explosion might make San Francisco more cautious about bringing CMC back quickly. They need him for the actual playoffs more than for September matchups.
It's a messy situation for some of you. It's also a reminder of the obvious: historical data often paints more accurate pictures than market sentiment (ADP). Even if CMC returns for Week 2, he'll remain a high-risk player.
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A brief rundown of the fantasy implications of yesterday's contest. Most are unsurprising: For San Francisco, Mason and Deebo Samuel led the way, while former starter Jauan Jennings came through. Blame others' underwhelming numbers on a great Jets D, or on Brandon Aiyuk's holdout (he might need a couple weeks to ramp up), or any number of factors.
Without knowing CMC's Week 2 status, all eyes obviously should be on Mason. He has the potential to score 18+ points regularly if he's the lone starter. Presumably he'll be one of Wednesday's biggest waiver adds. Hopefully some of you stashed him on draft night.
For the Jets, as always, Aaron Rodgers is on the downside of his career, and it shows. Trusting Garrett Wilson requires (for me) a leap of faith. In fairness, traveling across the country and competing against an exceptional Niners defense didn't help. But despite playing mostly from behind, Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor combined for only 29 throws. That might be the norm most weeks, assuming the Jets' D takes pressure off New York's passing attack. And clearly it wouldn't be good for those rostering Rodgers and/or Wilson.
Beyond that, rookie Braelon Allen earned only one touch, making him an even better buy-low option. I expect his usage to grow over time. Also, Allen Lazard's breakout seems like a massive fluke, especially considering Mike Williams didn't even get a look. This team needs to play at least one more time to determine what might be a trend (Lazard > Williams?] versus a one-off.
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