First, as I'm writing this (12:45am), it's unclear how severe Jordan Love's ankle injury is. So this rundown is based on what we know, rather than speculating on what might be. There will be time to dissect Love's situation and its impact once we know more.
Both starting running backs started slow last night. Painfully slow. Through the first frame, Saquon Barkley had three carries for 13 yards, while Josh Jacobs netted only four yards on six carries. In fact, Jacobs had eight carries for 10 yards until midway through the third quarter. He then salvaged a 12.4-point night, while Saquon obliterated Green Bay's D.
I was not at all comfortable drafting Saquon this summer, as many of you know. But he proved me wrong by halftime. Not sure the last time an RB scored 30+ fantasy points in his first game with a new team. He won't always earn 26 touches -- or at least, hopefully he won't, because that would put him on pace for 442, which would be the highest total since DeMarco Murray, 497 a decade ago. Still, Week 1 isn't the time to complain about "over-usage." Let's see how this offense settles in.
The most surprising thing for Philly Friday night -- and for some of you, it was entirely expected -- was Jalen Hurts' inability to run the ball, including near the goal line. Several of you are folding your arms right now, thinking, "of course." Well deserved. Despite Jason Kelce's retirement, the Eagles were expected to maintain an elite or near-elite offensive line. Way too soon to panic, and also, it's fair to wonder if Hurts' double-digit rushing scores in three consecutive seasons is squarely in the rearview mirror.
For Green Bay, my biggest question yesterday was how the receiving corps would shake out. Notably, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson secured 5+ targets each. No one else had more than three. The over-hyped Dontayvion Wicks came up empty, as did supposed #1 TE Luke Musgrave. Jayden Reed had 32.1 points. No other receiver cleared 10.3.
And this summer, my biggest question re: Green Bay was how many receivers Love could feed each week. I had guessed about two. Last night it was essentially one, unless you're happy with Watson's 3-13-1 evening. On other teams, we might see a consolidation, where guys like Wicks and Tucker Kraft fade to the background, generating more opportunities for a "core" group.
Well, that's probably not happening on this team, where nearly everyone pass-catcher is 23-24 years old. Presumably no one is in decline, and no one is expendable. Reed might be the only sure thing this season, and I'm not just saying that because of yesterday, though it certainly bolsters the argument. It's easy to imagine the other receivers battling for looks well into December.
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Next, a few thoughts about tomorrow's big games -- the key fantasy angle I'm tracking for each team:
Steelers -- With Justin Fields looking likely to start over the injured Russell Wilson, this *might* be the end of Wilson's career. Sounds bizarre and perhaps even nutty. But I mentioned this a few weeks ago: Wilson has a lower fantasy ceiling than Fields. And the key question is whether Fields would play well enough to keep the job. Assuming he's under center tomorrow, I think he'll be quite good, making him a must-add in most leagues.
Falcons -- Managers have been freaking out (justifiably) about Kyle Pitts since 2022. I'm all in on him this year. Let's see what he does with Kirk Cousins at the helm.
Bills -- Will Khalil Shakir become the new alpha receiver, or does Keon Coleman (or even somehow Curtis Samuel?) have a shot?
Cardinals -- Is Marvin Harrison Jr. the real deal? Sure. But will he justify the second-round draft pick that his ADP apparently warranted?
Bears -- Caleb Williams' debut, which will set the stage for the fantasy values of three exceptions wideouts and an underrated TE.
Titans -- Tony Pollard or Tyjae Spears?
Bengals -- Tee Higgins is doubtful and Ja'Marr Chase wants to get paid. Andrei Iosivas was #189 on my draft board, 82 spots ahead of his ADP. Can he become the next Tyler Boyd -- or even more in Week 1?
Patriots -- Who, if anyone, will secure double-digit fantasy points?
Colts -- Anthony Richardson could be the overall QB1 this year. Or across a full season, he might have the ups and downs that he could have had as a rookie if not for his injury.
Texans -- How will Stefon Diggs' arrival shake up the ball distribution?
Dolphins -- A three-headed backfield? If Jaylen Wright gets 6+ touches (if it's not a blowout), that will speak volumes.
Jaguars -- I'm all in on Trevor Lawrence to wildly outperform expectations. If he's successful in Miami, it'll bode well going forward.
Saints -- Will Alvin Kamara continue to dominate backfield touches, or could Jamaal Williams (or someone else) claim a 1B role?
Panthers -- Bryce Young isn't as bad as we saw last season. A rebound is inevitable. And . . . will it be enough to put him on fantasy radars?
Giants -- I don't buy into Devin Singletary as a fantasy starter in 2024.
Vikings -- All in on Sam Darnold.
Chargers -- Who will be Justin Herbert's #1 WR?
Raiders -- Brock Bowers could be a weekly fantasy starter. Week 1 should give us a good clue.
Seahawks -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be Geno Smith's #2 target this year, beginning tomorrow.
Broncos -- Can Javonte Williams recapture his rookie-year, pre-injury glory?
Browns -- The backfield is Jerome Ford's for the taking . . . for now.
Cowboys -- The backfield is Rico Dowdle's for the taking . . . again, for now.
Buccaneers -- Haven't been high on Rachaad White all summer. Bucky Irving needs to be rostered in all 14+ team leagues.
Commanders -- Is Jayden Daniels the real deal?
Lions -- Can Jameson Williams become the difference-maker he was "supposed" to be?
Rams -- Can Puka Nacua replicate last year's dominance?
49ers -- How many touches will CMC get? Hopefully not more than around 18.
Jets -- Aaron Rodgers was already on the decline two years ago. What will he look like in his first (hopefully) full game in nearly two years?
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