17 years ago, in the immediate aftermath of a tough breakup with my fiancee, my friend Justin Rood suggested I start a fantasy football blog. So I created a swagger-laden persona and various features (like "This Day in Fantasy Sports History") that I later incorporated into the book "Fantasy Football for Winners." I wrote two columns per week to an audience that (according to Google Analytics) topped out at around 100 visitors a day by midseason. That should have been plenty. It was a respectable starting point to build on.
But writing two columns per week was hard work, or at least it felt like hard work. What was I going to write about every three-to-four days? And how could I make it compelling (and accurate) enough where people would keep coming back?
I ran out of juice by early November, wrote what amounted to a "goodbye" column, and walked away. The blog is still there, though it's completely invisible in Google searches, which -- trust me -- isn't a bad thing.
Over the years, people have asked my advice on how to create a viable blog -- something that produces sustained interest. My stock answer is all about finding your voice and keeping it consistent; showing respect toward your audience, even if someone disrespects you; sharing information that isn't easily accessible elsewhere; etc.
But this time of year makes me think about the advice I've never given: write even when we don't feel like writing, and/or when we can't think of anything to write about. Five minutes before sitting down at my laptop two nights ago, I didn't know I'd write about Jerome Ford. Then I thought, "As a fantasy manager, who do I care about today that I didn't care about yesterday?" It was Ford.
Same thing the night before. Someone had asked me why I'd ranked James Cook so low. Decided around 11:00pm that addressing the "why" might be interesting.
Writing every day during the season is easier, because there's always news to feed off of. "32 Teams in 32 Days" kind of writes itself, because I've already done the research; all that remains is explaining it. But during the month or so between Team 32 and the start of Week 1 -- and particularly the period between final NFL cuts and Week 1 -- there are plenty of largely uneventful days. Even the shocking shooting of Ricky Pearsall two days ago doesn't merit a whole or even partial column. We know what happened, and no one knows how long he'll be out. Writing about him is more click-baity than newsworthy.
So much of today's column is kind of meta. It's an acknowledgement that while every day I try to produce something you won't find elsewhere, some days there's not much to say. But that also can't be an excuse. Writing every day -- trying to find something even remotely interesting -- teaches us how to find those things faster next time.
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That's a long setup for today's topic, which I'll keep pretty brief. I came up with this topic while writing the section above -- in other words, a few minutes ago. Crowded receiving corps seem compelling. So what's the angle? The Texans give us what I think is a fascinating fantasy angle.
Last year C.J. Stroud was obviously incredible. Among QBs who played more than half the season, he was #1 in passing yards per game. And among quarterbacks who played more than half the season, he was tied for 12th in pass attempts per game. There's certainly room to grow here. Another 4.05 throws per contest (a 12% uptick) would have placed him #1. All else being equal, we might imagine a scenario where Stroud nets 12% more passing yards and TDs, giving his pass-catchers a modest boost.
Here's where things get interesting for me: can Stroud feed his top receivers in 2024? Last year Nico Collins led the team with 108 targets in 15 games. Tank Dell (11 games) and Robert Woods (14 games) had 75 and 88 targets, respectively. Dalton Schultz (15 games) also had 88 looks. Noah Brown's 55 targets will be redistributed, though former second-rounder John Metchie (30 targets) could earn some of those looks.
Then there's the backfield. In 2023 Houston averaged the league's second-fewest RB targets (71). The newly acquired Joe Mixon has averaged 70 these past two years. It's conceivable that Stroud will lean a bit more on Mixon than he did Singletary last season.
In one realistic scenario where Stroud once again averages about 33.3 passes per game, one or more of his primary pass-catchers will almost assuredly disappoint. If we add the targets per contest for Collins, Dell, Woods, Brown, and Schultz, we're at 30.8. That leaves about 2.5 pass attempts for everyone else: Metchie, other tertiary receivers, Mixon, Dameon Pierce, etc. So either Stroud needs to throw much more (it's possible), or we'll witness a target crunch for one or more primary receivers.
Per WR ADPs, Collins, Diggs, and Dell are slight fades on my draft board. I believe the market is ranking them as if Stroud will be among the league's most prolific passers. And that might happen. But their ADPs seem to be based more on ceiling than midpoint. And while Mixon and Schultz are slight positional bargains, only Schultz is undervalued based on overall ADP, on the assumption he won't compete for looks more than he did last year.
To sum up, if Stroud averages at least 10% more throws per game, and if the backfield remains largely shut out of the passing game, then Collins, Diggs, and Dell will be in prime spots to meet/exceed expectations. Barring that, all three WRs run the risk of capping each other's ceilings below their ADPs.
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