When a great player's struggling in September, sometimes it's hard to envision them rebounding. It's easy to wonder whether their downturn is the new norm.
As alluded to yesterday, what we're witnessing now isn't just one or two great players struggling. That would be normal. Even a sizable handful (whatever that means) would be normal. What's happened through these first two weeks is flat-out bizarre. So let's try to make sense of it, and how we as managers might respond.
Each team of course has a #1 WR. Sometimes they're narrowly the #1, like Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco. Heading into this season, Samuel's WR ADP was one spot better than Aiyuk's. So for our purposes (more on that in a moment), let's call Deebo the Niners' #1 WR.
Based on preseason ADP, 13 teams' #1 WRs are not leading their team in WR fantasy points. This includes the Bengals, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Chargers, Colts, Eagles, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, Panthers, Rams, and Saints. For example, Andrei Iosivas is outperforming Ja'Marr Chase, Jameson Williams is one-upping Amon-Ra St. Brown, both Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis are well ahead of Christian Kirk. And so on. In fact, Kirk isn't the only team #1 sitting in third place in WR fantasy scoring. Michael Pittman, Amari Cooper, and Courtland Sutton also hold that distinction.
Some of this makes sense. Poor QB play in Jacksonville, Cleveland, Carolina, and Denver have leveled the playing field, removing #1 WRs' advantages. Other aspects of it don't make as much sense, like Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave taking backseats to their #2's.
Exacerbating all of this is a rash of new WR injuries layered onto painful earlier ones. In the past couple days, Cooper Kupp, Deebo , and A.J. Brown have gone on the shelf. For the Rams, we might have to decide among normally fringe or unstartable wideouts. For the Eagles, is Britain Covey the temporary #2? And in San Francisco, will we now see a long-awaited breakout for Aiyuk.
I strongly believe that most of the underperforming #1's will get back on track, and that this is a buy-low moment for guys like Olave, Kirk, etc. Whether they meet/exceed preseason expectations is anyone's guess. But most should reclaim their status as team #1's, and the resulting production will justify managers' decision to keep or acquire them.
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Also, a couple words on two noteworthy quarterbacks. Tua has been (mercifully?) placed on injured reserve. Skylar Thompson can't be expected to lead this offense for the next several weeks, and possibly the rest of the year. In Superflex, former Dolphin Ryan Tannehill is a must-roster, at least for the next few days. There's not much else for this title-desperate franchise to choose from, including Blaine Gabbert and Trevor Siemian. Miami almost assuredly will replace Thompson by/before Week 4, which should keep Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, at minimum, relevant.
And the Panthers benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton is like the so-bad-it's-good-but-still-quite-bad movie The Day After Tomorrow, except after most of the world freezes over (Young), the deadly bird aliens from the so-bad-it's-good-because-I-can't-remember-how-bad-it-is Pitch Black attack the survivors (Dalton).
In other words, this won't end well.
But we only care about fantasy, and the nice thing about Dalton is that Carolina probably will be winless this season. Playing from behind has its advantages. I'm banking on 38+ pass attempts per game for Dalton, which should be enough to keep Diontae Johnson and/or Adam Thielen in the top 45.
A question for the group: What are the odds that we've already witnessed Young's final start in Carolina? Presumably they've seen enough and are preparing to "earn" the #1 or #2 draft pick. Their Week 1 starter next season realistically could be Cam Ward, Carson Beck, or Shedeur Sanders. Or is it possible that Young will learn from the sidelines and somehow re-enter the starting lineup midseason as a certifiable upgrade over Dalton?
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