As many of you know, I've been tracking ADP vs. performance metrics for each position since 2012. Each year there are outliers, and also a lot of consistency. Through the first three weeks of this season, there are seemingly more QB outliers than ever.
Here's one way to quantify it: Collectively, the preseason QB1's (based on ADP) from 2012 to 2023 finished, on average, as the 11th-best fantasy quarterback. Actually, it's 11.1. This isn't as bad as it seems. Injuries for former #1's Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck skew the results. In fact, the only preseason #1 who finished outside the top 8 while still playing nearly every game was Cam Newton in 2016.
The average ranking for preseason QB2's was 3.7. Relatively speaking (as you'll see shortly), that's an insanely impressive mark. Nine of the 12 quarterbacks in this group finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. The other three finished 6th, 7th, and 10th. Patrick Mahomes was this summer's QB2. In fairness, he was my QB7 for all the reasons stated in earlier posts. While he could turn things around quickly, I believe he'll be another outlier.
The average ranking for preseason QB3's, QB4's, and QB5's were, respectively, 11.0, 10.8, and 7.6. As you can see, betting on a QB with a 3, 4, or 5 ADP has proven to be a slightly-to-moderately better bet since 2012 than betting on the QB1.
And here's where things get a bit more interesting. Preseason QB6's, QB7's, etc. have ranked worse collectively than each of the top 5 QB groups. The next best are QB8's (12.1 average ranking) and QB15's (also 12.1 average ranking).
So if we're betting on the best QB outcomes, it makes sense to bet on a player with a QB5 ADP or better. Doesn't mean we're optimizing draft value. But it does mean we're playing the probabilities on maximizing performance.
That brings us to this season -- or at least, the first three weeks of this season. The top 5 preseason quarterbacks' production rankings are, respectively, #1 (Josh Allen), #14 (Mahomes), #8 (Jalen Hurts), #3 (Lamar Jackson), and #15 (C.J. Stroud). Yes, it's early. Things should level out at least somewhat.
But how much will they level out? Did the market mis-judge the values of more elite and near-elite QBs than ever before? Is Stroud facing a sophomore slump? Were Anthony Richardson's (QB6 ADP vs. QB19 production ranking) 173 rookie snaps a weak indicator of his full-season potential? Is Hurts (no Jason Kelce and his top two WRs battling injuries) no longer a weekly must-start option?
And outliers sometimes cut both ways. This year many seemingly undraftable quarterbacks are scoring more points than most must-draft QBs. Baker Mayfield (QB21 ADP) is the QB6. Derek Carr (QB28 ADP) is the QB9. Sam Darnold (QB31 ADP) is the QB4. Generally one or two non-top-16 preseason quarterbacks find their way into the top 10. Having Carr and Darnold in that group is historically unheard of.
Preseason top-5 QBs have been among the most bankable players for more than decade. So far, we're witnessing a pretty seismic shift. Throwing it to you: Which underperforming QB has the best shot at snapping back, and which surprise breakout is due for a regression?
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