The first Sunday is in the books. As most of you know, for years I've been doing Monday morning rundowns of the biggest fantasy impact for each Sunday team. Basically, what just happened, and why does it matter, and what do we do about it? I try to focus on one player per team, with a few exceptions:
Steelers -- Two things had to happen in this game for Justin Fields to have a shot at supplanting a (eventually) healthy Russell Wilson: win the game and play solidly. Mission accomplished. The rest is up to head coach Mike Tomlin. As shared several times this summer, I strongly believe Fields is the higher-upside QB on this team. In other words, he belongs on deep-league / one-QB league rosters.
Falcons -- A disastrous opener, though things will get better, especially when they don't play a top 10 defense. Still, there should be some anxiety, especially with Drake London. As you know, I was bullish about him and Kyle Pitts heading into the season. And . . . it's inconceivable that this franchise is okay with Ray-Ray McCloud leading the team in targets.
Bills -- Josh Allen's injury might or might not be the biggest story, especially with a short Thursday turnaround. After a slow start, he cooked. And don't be overly concerned with his spread-the-ball offense. Injuries and ascenders (for example, rookies getting acclimated to the league) tend to shake things out. By midseason we could conceivably find that Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid consistently account for 60%+ of Allen's targets.
Cardinals -- Yesterday I asked, "Is Marvin Harrison Jr. the real deal? Sure. But will he justify the second-round draft pick that his ADP apparently warranted?" This is clearly a buy-low moment, though managers with Harrison probably won't dump him for less than second- or third-round value, and those investing might be cautious about when he'll justify that expense.
Bears -- Caleb Williams' debut easily could be the main fantasy story, but not from my perspective. D'Andre Swift has this backfield largely to himself, with Khalil Herbert looming and role players (Velus Jones and Travis Homer) firmly in the backseat. Yet Swift slowed beginning in his final six outings last year, netting a 78-313 rushing line (4.0 YPC) and only a 6-17 receiving line. That receiving line was jarring for a guy who normally excels through the air. His struggles yesterday, as well as his catchless performance on only one target, need to be monitored.
Titans -- The "Tony Pollard vs. Tyjae Spears" debate was answered, at least for now.
Bengals -- Same with Zack Moss vs. Chase Brown. As always, if you have the "better" one, I'd strongly advise trading for the "lesser" one. Sometimes these split backfields oscillate between RBs.
Patriots -- Regarding New England, yesterday I asked, "Who, if anyone, will secure double-digit fantasy points?" Turns out it was Rhamondre Stevenson . . . and no one else. In fact, I don't think anyone even reached eight points. Positive game scripts won't be the norm, but it's helpful that Antonio Gibson is (as anticipated) seemingly on the steep downside of his career.
Colts -- Anthony Richardson started decently, slowed considerably, and then looked elite. By my count, he had 8.12 fantasy points in the first quarter, 1.9 in the second, and nothing in the third (not really his fault given the game flow). But he dominated the fourth, netting about 16 fantasy points. He can obviously score in buckets. Good to see a 2024 debut that echos last season's small sample size.
Texans -- So much to highlight, and I'll choose Joe Mixon's 33 touches (his career-high is 34). Never good to see. Well, great to see him light up fantasy. But let's hope he drops to around 16-20 touches per game.
Dolphins -- As expected, Raheem Mostert is squarely in decline. Jaylen Wright's surprise inactive designation opens the door for Jeff Wilson as a reasonable deep-league stash until/unless Wright enters the picture.
Jaguars -- Not what I expected from Trevor Lawrence, though he can be forgiven in a road game against a tough D. The bigger story is Travis Etienne. As subscribers know, my rankings had Tank Bigsby 33 spots ahead of his ADP. Last year's rookie flop was irrelevant. He'll be a hot waiver add, and hopefully some of you got in pre-hype.
Saints -- How could New Orleans score 47 points with Chris Olave getting 11 scoreless yards. Turns out it was pretty easy against the league's most overmatched franchise. I actually see this as a great buy-low moment. Or maybe wait one more week (they're on the road against Dallas next Sunday). It won't often be this easy for the Saints. Olave should be fine.
Panthers -- This might be the lowest point of Bryce Young's career, though in fairness it's not solely on his shoulders. As I've written maybe a dozen times since last summer, Carolina mortgaged part of their future (and gave up their best receiver) to move up a few spots to land a guy who wasn't even the unquestioned #1 QB in the draft. Their running game is in shambles (though rookie Jonathan Brooks can't do any worse when he suits up), and perhaps no defense is worse. Rostering Panthers at the moment requires nerves of steel.
Giants -- New York is in a similar boat, though not nearly as leaky. Daniel Jones might be benched in a matter of weeks. Notably, Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson dominated looks, and that probably won't change regardless of who's under center.
Vikings -- Sam Darnold was adequate. I expected better. Jordan Addison's injury didn't help, and next week's matchup against San Francisco could be rough. Those rostering Darnold in superflex should hang tight.
Chargers -- Like many people, I liked the Gus Edwards / J.K. Dobbins combo late in drafts, especially picking at or near the turn. Yesterday it was all Dobbins, despite the two essentially splitting touches 50/50. While it's too soon to establish a norm, it's clear that anyone who hedged with both RBs got their money's worth.
Raiders -- I highlighted Brock Bowers yesterday, in light of general market concern that fellow TE Michael Mayer might cap the rookie's ceiling. But yesterday Bowers led all Vegas receivers with six receptions on eight targets. He's almost officially one of the club's four top offensive options.
Seahawks -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba . . . I wouldn't panic. Yeah, easy to say, right? Well, the same goes for D.K. Metcalf. This game put Kenneth Walker and Tyler Lockett in the spotlight. The former is as good as he looked. The latter is a nearly 32-year-old Seahawk legend. Don't sell low on JSN or Metcalf.
Broncos -- Among all of the rookie QB debuts, this was the most painful to watch. There are no shocking takeaways, except perhaps one: 26-year-old rookie WR Devaughn Vele -- a seventh-round pick -- caught all eight of his targets. So let's see if Vele can somehow achieve relevance, or if "alpha" Courtland Sutton, journeyman Josh Reynolds, and 2023 second-rounder Marvin Mims will keep Vele off the fantasy map.
Browns -- More than a year ago I wrote that Deshaun Watson's partial first season with Cleveland made him borderline benchable: "Except of course, he cannot be benched." At the time the Browns went all in with this former franchise-elevating quarterback, I also wrote that it might end up being one of the worst NFL moves in modern history. As suggested at various times above, I shouldn't make a sweeping judgment considering the opponent (an exceptional Dallas defense). And yet, Watson's full body of work since late 2022 suggests that a benching might be needed if this team is to reach the playoffs. Fantasy-wise, no receiver -- and I'm speaking mostly about Amari Cooper -- is a must-start.
Cowboys -- Jake Ferguson's injury status will be closely watched. And Zeke Elliott played more than I expected and outperformed Rico Dowdle (also unexpected). I still believe Dowdle is the RB to roster, though Zeke can't be supplanted if no one else is stepping up.
Buccaneers -- Chris Godwin was #52 on my draft board, 26 spots ahead of his ADP. I've discussed before that it was a ridiculous oversight. There weren't many bigger steals in the 5th-6th rounds.
Commanders -- Yesterday I asked, "Is Jayden Daniels the real deal?" Fantasy-wise, 100%. An incredible debut on the ground. Through the air, we should wonder if Terry McLaurin will remain a top-30 WR.
Lions -- Yesterday I asked, "Can Jameson Williams become the difference-maker he was 'supposed' to be?" He's now a must-roster WR.
Rams -- Puka Nacua's injury might be an earthquake, or it might just be a tremor. We'll all know more soon.
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