A reader recently hired me to draft for them. About five rounds in, I started examining which backup RBs or fringe starters should be snagged in the middle rounds. Javonta Williams (overall-81 ADP) is going pretty late because of his injury history and somewhat narrow path back to greatness. He's actually the cheapest sure-fire Week 1 bell cow. Every RB that comes after him either is a handcuff, a deep backup, or in a running-back-by-committee situation.
Well, "every other" except one. With Nick Chubb on the shelf, Jerome Ford (overall-112 ADP) is generally the final Week 1 workhorse off the board. It seems like an oversight, at least to me. Here are some reasons why.
First and foremost, Chubb reportedly will begin the season on the PUP list, meaning he'll miss at least the first four games. And it very well could be more than four. As he continues his recovery from a torn ACL, surely Cleveland will play it as safe as they can. They're on the road in Weeks 5 and 6. He might return then, or maybe the team will hold him out until their Week 7 home matchup vs. the Bengals.
If Ford looks as good as he did last year, the Browns might play it even more conservatively with their star running back. Chubb realistically could miss half the fantasy regular season. Maybe a little less. Maybe a little or a lot more.
Second, while Cleveland's backups are adequate-to-solid, and while Pierre Strong and (particularly) D'Onta Foreman have experience as starters, Ford is the incumbent. It's his job to lose. If you're going to wager who's most likely to earn 12+ touches a game in September, Ford's the safest bet.
Third, although Ford's 4.0 yards per carry in 2023 appear pretty pedestrian, he excelled in many other metrics, including a broken-tackle rate (one per 7.8 carries) that was third-best in the league behind Jaylen Warren and James Conner.
Ford is now going in the 10th round of 12-team leagues. Chubb's going in the eighth. The challenge is that Ford is the safer option. If Chubb were safer, I'd recommend drafting Chubb in the seventh and then snagging Ford in the eighth. But for many managers, it's not advantageous to draft Chubb in the seventh or eighth if you're not guaranteed Ford. Chubb is a wait-and-see RB. Ford *should* deliver top-24 numbers in his first four games, and possibly more. If you're adopting a zero-RB draft approach, Ford is a very affordable early-season fill-in, at minimum.
One of the unique challenges of fantasy football is that we can't simply take a week off. In most leagues, we have only 14 chances to start our best players during the regular season. If you don't have many RBs rostered heading into the ninth round and you pass on Ford in favor of, say, the similarly priced Gus Edwards (overall-111 ADP), sure, you might get sustained production from an aging RB in a two-man backfield throughout the year. But between the two, Ford has a much better shot at big-time production in the opening weeks. If Ford can help you win any of your first four, six, or more games, then he's probably more valuable than the lower-ceiling Edwards.
You could do something like WR-WR-WR-TE-QB, then take Zamir White at cost in the sixth round, Javonte Williams at cost in the seventh, then Ford a bit early in the eighth. If Chubb's available in the ninth and you want him, great. Nice hedge. Going with ADPs, if you're picking sixth in a 12-team league, this might leave you with Amon-Ra St. Brown (6 ADP), Chris Olave (23 ADP), Jalen Hurts (33 ADP), Jaylen Waddle (43 ADP), Kyle Pitts (63 ADP), then White, Williams, Ford, and maybe Chubb. Or swap out Waddle and Pitts for Mark Andrews and Tee Higgins. Or many other combinations. Whatever works for you.
So before you make your picks, highlight every RB who's expected to be the clear-cut Week 1 starter. In Ford's case, he might be much more, and that makes him the last workhorse RB standing in most drafts.
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