While drafting last night, I was reminded of something many/most of you have probably seen many times: a positional player taken in one round, and then a comparable position player taken several rounds later. It actually happens a lot, and sometimes (admittedly) with my picks. Even while laser-focused on "value," sometimes there are 10-15 other players at the same position with the same basic value -- similar upside and similar downside.
Joe Burrow (overall-60 ADP) went at pick 66, while Trevor Lawrence (overall-126 ADP) went at #132. Two great young quarterbacks each going six slots after their market price. Both (in my opinion) with similar odds of finishing in the top 6. Lawrence was actually better last season in points per game. But the market's pretty stingy with guys who haven't been at or near the top yet. Burrow's been there. He gets the benefit of the doubt. So he's consistently taken around 60-70 picks before Lawrence.
Wideouts are a whole different thing. There are teams' #1 WRs. Not all teams. The Patriots' situation is a bit of a mess. But in general, when we start off WR-WR-WR, we're landing at least two team #1 WRs, as well as a 1B WR like DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle. In leagues where you can start at least four WRs, it makes sense to dig deep later on with JSN, or even deeper with Jakobi Meyers (who I have only 17 spots lower than JSN despite being 46 spots lower in ADP).
So it was amazing (and not surprising) to see so many similar-upside WRs going off the board in the 8th-14th rounds. A few examples: Rome Odunze drafted in the 8th, on par with his ADP. Brian Thomas in the 9th, a round early based on ADP. Fast-forward to Hollywood Brown in the 11th and Khalil Shakir in the 13th. It's all subjective and also entirely appropriate to believe, for example, Odunze and Thomas will be better than Brown and Shakir. That's how most people are drafting. And yet if I take Odunze in the 8th, how much value am I securing compared to my opponent who took Shakir five rounds later?
The easy answer is that we'll know after the season. Of course. But this is why if you show me your draft results, and I see two or three similar-upside WRs on your bench, I politely advise that you drop one for a handcuff RB or some other higher-ceiling option. The next Puka Nacua might not come for years. But the next Kyren Williams will show up every season, often several times.
In this 12-team half-PPR draft, I had the 8th pick. Based on expected opponent behaviors (based on ADP), I prepared to choose between Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J Brown. Amon-Ra fell to me, so I took him. Expected to go WR or Travis Etienne in round 2, but Jahmyr Gibbs was still available, so I pounced.
Based on how others' drafted, I had a pretty good sense of who'd be there in each of the next three rounds. Queued up six or seven guys to target, roughly two in each round, with the goal of landing at least two more high-end WRs. That resulted in Jaylen Waddle, Kenneth Walker, and Tee Higgins. Got cute thinking David Montgomery and Kyle Pitts would be there in rounds 6 and 7, but no. Thought about taking Terry McLaurin in the 6th, and then thought, "How many potential 1,000/5 wideouts are remaining? Maybe 20? 30?"
That was my first big pivot for all the reasons stated earlier. There would be other McLaurins. I wanted a possible game-changer. Despite expecting to wait on Trevor Lawrence, I went with Dak Prescott, who's averaged 20+ fantasy points per game in four of his last five campaigns.
Looking ahead to round 7, I felt confident two targets -- Chris Godwin and Christian Kirk -- would still be on the board. And it worked out. Kirk shares a bye week with Higgins, so I took Godwin to increase the odds of not needing to drop an RB for a one-week WR fill-in.
At that moment, I committed to not drafting another wideout, because (again) why take a top-45 WR when other top-45 WRs might be on waivers? Sure enough, no one drafted Jakobi Meyers. The post-draft waiver landscape also includes Dontayvion Wicks, Keon Coleman, Michael Wilson, Mike Williams, Rashod Bateman . . . Many of these guys are expected to be their team's #2 WR. Even if they get 60 catches for 700 yards and four TDs, it won't be much worse than last year's WR 45, Brandin Cooks. WR spot starters aren't hard to find in most leagues.
So in rounds 8-10 I went Javonte Williams, Jerome Ford, and Nick Chubb. Thought about snagging Kenneth Walker's handcuff, Zach Charbonnet, in the 11th. Instead I chose what I think was a higher-impact approach, taking Brock Bowers and then T.J. Hockenson. Bowers is a lottery ticket who might or might not pan out in Year 1. Hock should return in October. By midseason I *should* have no worse than a weekly top 8 TE, and it's at least possible that Hock could return to near-elite form by December, if not sooner.
My final non-DST / non-kicker pick was Jordan Mason. He'll be the first to dump, probably no later than Week 7 during Dak's bye.
I get the temptation with loading up on WRs. And if in past years you've needed to start all of them at least a few times, then it might make sense. But in leagues where we can start a max of three WRs, I'm not carrying more than five, no matter how tempting it is to secure another 65/900/5 option. Because if there are plenty of potential 60/700/4 WRs on waivers, that should be enough.
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