At various times these next few weeks, I'd like to open up discussion on major overvalued or undervalued positional players. So today let's talk through tight ends. Here are three guys I'd target in Best Ball and would keep on my deep-league waiver radar to open the season.
Greg Dulcich looks poised to open the season healthy, which is a big deal. While injuries marred his 2023 campaign, he's already seen preseason action. That was the first hurdle heading into the summer. Next he needs to re-establish himself as Denver's clear-cut #1.
In 2022 he joined a team that already had . . . Albert Okwuegbunam. And not just any Albert Okwuegbunam. The same Albert Okwuegbunam who turned a few heads in 2021 after hitting double-digit fantasy points three times, which was pretty remarkable because he was the #2 TE behind established #1 Noah Fant. When the Broncos traded Fant (in the Russell Wilson deal) that next offseason, many expected Albert O. to ascend to the top of the depth chart.
Instead, the franchise used a third-round pick to land Dulcich, and the rookie made it count, posting a 33-411-2 receiving line in only 10 games. Albert O. moved to Philly that next offseason, and it looked like Dulcich would be a mainstay starter and (at minimum) decent fantasy TE streamer.
I'm not giving up on him. His TE32 ADP assumes he'll be a shell of his former self, or else he'll continue to struggle with injuries. In Best Ball you're hoping to get 10+ games, and that's more than worth the investment at that price. At his best -- if he can stay on the field -- Dulcich is well-positioned to finish in the top 18, giving plenty of managers a stop-gap streamer when needed.
Cade Otton (TE29 ADP) is a more bizarre example of an undervalued tight end. What am I missing? The former fourth-rounder took a small step forward last year with Baker Mayfield under center. He should be able to at least match last year's production, when he was the TE24 in points per game. I've got him at TE19. He's essentially a safer version of Dulcich for a comparable price.
Finally, the still-only 23-year-old Kyle Pitts. How is he undervalued? Because he's my TE1. His ADP is TE7. Drafted #4 overall in 2021, he was tagged as an instant positional game-changer. A TE who could operate like a wideout. The problem these past three years hasn't been Pitts. It's been atrocious QB play and questionable play-calling. That combination dooms most playmakers.
One of my favorite Pitts stats is that quarterbacks last season averaged an 83.9 QB rating when targeting him. That was higher than Desmond Ridder's rating in 13 starts. It was significantly higher than Taylor Heinicke's rating in four starts. Pitts elevated his quarterbacks, but he could only do so much. With Kirk Cousins under center, Pitts almost assuredly will do a lot more.
The safe move would be to rank Pitts around TE6 and try to time it right. And to be clear, I'm not suggesting making him the first TE off the board. But with an overall-61 ADP, in 12-team leagues he'll probably be gone before the sixth round. I would target him in the fourth.
Who's on your most-undervalued-TE list?
---