We're getting close to the end of the preseason, and one team might have more fantasy question marks than any other: the Steelers.
Russell Wilson is close to squandering his edge of Justin Fields. Fantasy-wise, I think Fields will be better for this offense. My who knows. Still, Wilson is similar to a 42-year-old starting pitcher who now needs more guile and ball movement to compensate for the loss of zip on his fastball. He rushed for a healthy 342 yards last year, though that doesn't tell the full story. He had the third-fewest yards per carry of his career. His 10 fumbles (though in fairness he lost only two) were his most since 2017. His 6.9 yards per pass attempt was a career-low.
Blame it on a two-dimensional Denver offense. Blame it on Wilson. Blame it on everyone. But it happened, and this summer he hasn't exactly been lighting it up. He'll turn 36 in November, and as I've written many times, dual-threat QBs generally fall off dramatically around 31-33 years old. Randall Cunningham was one of the lone exceptions; he was 36 when the wheels came off.
Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren is out several weeks with a hamstring injury. Good news for Najee Harris, who might open the season as a bell cow. And hamstring injuries don't always just go away. Aaron Jones last season was Exhibit Z of this phenomenon. There's no need for Pittsburgh to rush Warren back, which actually should be good news for managers who roster him October thru January. And that makes Najee one of the biggest short-term fantasy winners this weekend among starters / co-starters.
But a full plate of Najee isn't necessarily good for this offense. Warren has run better these past two years and was (by far) the preferred back on passing downs. With all respect to the ageless Cordarrelle Patterson, any missed time for Warren would be a net negative for the team.
Then there's the whole Brandon Aiyuk saga. Last week it was reported that a tentative deal was in place. Apparently not, or apparently one side balked. Or maybe they'll come back together in the coming days. But what once looked like a massive fantasy boost to Wilson (or Fields) and the offense as a whole might be lost. George Pickens has been one of my favorite top-50-overall bargains this summer, and nothing's changed in this fairly top-heavy offense. Aside from Pat Freiermuth, we'll see if any other receiver (rookie Roman Wilson being the most likely) become fantasy relevant.
Back to Russell Wilson: he's my QB31 behind Bo Nix, Bryce Young, and Gardner Minshew. His ADP is QB27. That no longer seems tenable. In Superflex, I can't fathom drafting Wilson over any of the other three, two of whom (Nix and Young) should be in line to start every game (assuming Nix wins the job, which he should). The only thing stopping me from ranking Fields ahead of Wilson is time. I want to take a little more time to see what head coach Mike Tomlin decides. I can't imagine he'd name Wilson the starter and then bench him in Week 2, even if it's deserved.
And finally, will this be Wilson's last hurrah? He'll be a free agent after this year. He started every game from his 2012 rookie campaign thru the 2020 season. He was a top-11 fantasy QB all nine of those years four top-3 finishes. If Fields is named the starter, that might be it for one of the greatest QBs of his era.
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