Should a team's strength of schedule impact how we value their fantasy players? Big question. No clear answers. And it's worth diving in a bit, because the web is filled with analyses based on which teams have the "toughest" or "easiest" schedules.
Tough and easy are tough to pin down scientifically. Generally SoS takes a team's opponents this coming season and quantifies "strength" based on those teams' winning percentages the previous season. Last summer the Colts had the third "easiest" schedule based on opponents' 2022 winning percentages. That included the recently anemic Texans, which of course were counted twice, because they play in the same division.
Houston turned out to be much better than most people anticipated. In 2022 they surrendered the most RB fantasy points: 26.24 per game. Great news For Indy, Jacksonville, and Tennessee, in particular. Except in 2023 the Texans yielded a respectable 19.19 per game. They were outscored 420 to 289 in 2022. Then last year they flipped the tables, outscoring opponents 377-353.
SoS is a look back more than a look forward. For every one or two teams that play somewhat as expected, there's a surprising team that upends convention.
The more useful fantasy intel often comes out too late. Take the Cowboys, which had the 13th toughest SoS heading into last year. But after the dust settled last season, it turned out they had the third *easiest* schedule. Makes sense, doesn't it? Most of their key players (outside of Tony Pollard) outperformed their ADPs. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was supposed to have the ninth easiest SoS. But based on 2023 wins and losses, they had the second *toughest* schedule. Those who bought into Najee Harris's RB9 ADP or Kenny Pickett's supposed impending ascension were disappointed out of the gate.
The SoS Holy Grail lies in accurately predicting which teams will have the biggest variance between preseason SoS (looking backward) and end-of-season SoS (what actually happened).
How do we do that? Well . . . if I knew, trust me, I'd tell you. And it's also not rocket science. But just like with fantasy, it takes research and educated guesses. For example, Denver finished 8-9 last year. Most analysts predict a worse season for the Broncos. I think 4-13 is realistic. The Chiefs currently have the 17th easiest schedule based on 2023 W-L records. They're playing Denver twice, and if Denver is a 4-13 team rather than an 8-9 team, then that would meaningfully impact KC's SoS. Their 2023 opponents averaged a .502 winning percentage. If Denver finishes 4-13 and every other team (magically) matches their 2023 record, the average winning percentage of KC's opponents would be .474.
That would mean that, rather than have the 17th easiest schedule this year, they'd have the fifth easiest. And suddenly more analysts would be more bullish about Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, etc., which in turn could improve their ADPs . . . which in turn might force us to reach earlier to snag one or more in the draft.
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