If you drafted this past weekend and loaded up Niners, hopefully it was Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. A lot's happened and will continue to happen until it stops happening and we can stop talking about it. So with that, let's talk about it.
Yesterday San Francisco gave Brandon Aiyuk permission to seek a trade. Several teams with sub-par offenses have been linked to him. Might be nice if he becomes an uber-alpha somewhere, and it also might be a net negative if he has a worse QB. One thing is almost certain, at least as I'm writing this: Aiyuk's value likely won't increase. Could be wrong, but that's how I see it.
Barring something unforeseen, Deebo and Kittle are two big winners. This team boasts five guys who can help managers win a title, and I'm including Brock Purdy. Assuming Aiyuk leaves, we'll be down to (checks calculator) four.
Why can't someone else step up? Well it's been quite a week for this franchise, and it's only Wednesday. First-round rookie Ricky Pearsall hurt his shoulder in practice yesterday. Last month he was sidelined with a hamstring injury. A rough start for a guy who *could* be an instant-impact fantasy contributor. If he wraps up August unscathed, great. But he's missing valuable time. Still a fantasy bargain, though not remotely a sure thing.
Also yesterday, an injured calf might sideline CMC for the entire preseason. Remember, 417 touches last season. Historically highly likely to regress. The question is how much, and that's why I moved him down last week on my draft board.
Back to Deebo: Three years ago he was the overall WR3 with Jimmy G at QB, Aiyuk not yet "great," and Kittle posting overall TE4 numbers. So imagine a pretty realistic mid-season scenario where CMC is hurt, Aiyuk is long gone, and Pearsall hasn't yet established himself alongside veteran Jauan Jennings. There would be a clear lane for Deebo (and possibly Kittle) to dominate. Jennings' ceiling appears capped, so it probably comes down to how quickly Pearsall develops.
Then there's Purdy. Yeah, Deebo would be poised to crush it. But that doesn't mean his quarterback will come close to replicating last year's breakout. With Aiyuk in town, Purdy would be at least a slight buy at his QB11 ADP. Now I'm expecting that ADP to drop at least a couple spots. For context, Tua Tagovailoa has a QB13 ADP. Jared Goff: QB15. Trevor Lawrence: QB17. It would be really hard to justify drafting Purdy ahead of any of those guys.
Turning to you: Where do you think Aiyuk will end up, and what would be his value?
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