After touching on Sam Darnold yesterday, I want to put all my focus on him today. Too much focus? Maybe. But I don't think so.
Rookie J.J. McCarthy is now out for the season. Barring an injury, Darnold is a high-probability bet to play 16+ games. Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall round out the QB depth chart. In other words, this will almost assuredly be a Darnold-led offense until at least Week 1 of the 2025 season.
A case could be made -- a strong case -- that Darnold will be this year's Brock Purdy. That might sound outlandish until we consider Purdy was widely viewed as undraftable last summer. The former final NFL draft pick had a QB19 ADP, wedged between the post-prime Russell Wilson and never-prime Kenny Pickett. His accomplishments the year before were debatably replicable. If they were *undeniably* replicable, his ADP would have been in the top 10.
On the other end of the hype spectrum is Darnold, a former #3 overall draft pick who could've gone #1. Instead, the Browns took Baker Mayfield. We might wonder if Darnold would have been a better fit. I'm pretty certain he would have been better in Cleveland than he was with the Jets. As a rookie in New York, his top three receivers (in terms of yards) were Robbie Anderson, Chris Herndon, and Quincy Enunwa.
The following year, this franchise gave him an over-the-hill Le'Veon Bell (3.2 yards per carry). Jamison Crowder was an upgrade over Enunwa, and Darnold marginally improved. Then in Year 3, an unmitigated disaster. 37-year-old Frank Gore mercifully replaced Bell, though it was clear New York needed to give the "Bell treatment" to Gore, if only they had better options. And Breshad Perriman replaced Anderson, though Denzel Mims was on pace to lead the team in receiving yards if he'd stayed healthy.
Spelling this all out not to torture you, but to offer a little context on what (partially) derailed Darnold's career. Yes, Darnold is to blame. He played pretty poorly. And he also never really had a shot. It's notable that his first offensive coordinator, Jeremy Bates, hasn't coached again since getting fired after Darnold's rookie campaign. It's equally notable that the next OC (Dowell Loggains) also hasn't coached in the NFL since getting fired after the miserable 2020 season. The same goes for head coach Adam Gase.
Rather than try to re-build around their 24-year-old "franchise" quarterback, the Jets called it quits, unloading him onto the comparably hapless Panthers for a surprisingly good haul: a second-, fourth-, and sixth-round draft pick. Carolina's offense was anchored by superstars CMC and D.J. Moore. What could go wrong? CMC was healthy for only seven games -- and only four with Darnold healthy/active -- and there were no viable receivers outside of Moore. Former Jet Robbie Anderson was a shell of his former self. Only one other WR had more than 200 receiving yards and/or more than zero touchdowns: that's right, Brandon Zylstra.
But before this top-heavy offense turned south, Darnold played the best football of his career, at least statistically. He threw for 279+ yards and had 2+ scores in each of his first four contests, averaging 23.7 fantasy points. His ensuing implosion was, in fairness, not surprising. No CMC and no reliable #2 receiver? It was a Moore-or-bust offense with a serving of Chuba Hubbard (3.6 YPC).
Also in fairness, Darnold played pretty well when he closed out the following season. While it remained a Moore-or-bust aerial attack, Darnold averaged a reasonable 17.1 fantasy points per game in five of those last six games.
As alluded to yesterday, heading into this 2024 campaign, Darnold has never had a receiving corps this good. There are still some key question marks, like whether Aaron Jones can return to even semi-greatness, as well as when T.J. Hockenson -- near-elite or even elite when healthy -- will return to the field. But the beauty of Darnold's situation is that for the first time in four or five years, he doesn't have to look over his shoulder. He has the playmakers and the time (one full season) to prove he belongs atop the depth chart -- if not in Minnesota (when McCarthy is ready), then at least somewhere.
I wrote a couple weeks ago about great receivers elevating QBs. Justin Jefferson is one of the best in the game. Jordan Addison is a rising star whose potential suspension might not take effect until next season. (And reportedly the ankle he injured yesterday is not a big deal.) A Jefferson-Addison-Jones nucleus, on paper, looks pretty dang good. And Darnold is (in my opinion) an underrated talent.
After plenty of hemming and hawing (more hemming, to be honest), I've decided to put my money where my words are. He's now my QB21, ranked ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson and a little behind Matthew Stafford and Mayfield. And candidly, my top 14-to-24 QBs are still interchangeable. There's a lot of depth. A lot of these guys could be this year's Purdy.
But my point is that Darnold belongs in the conversation. While his QB33 ADP should creep into the top 26-28 by the weekend, I don't think that's nearly bullish enough. Wherever he likely lands, he'll be undervalued.
Looking forward to your thoughts, hems, and/or haws.
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