One manager's RB handcuff is another manager's spoiler. Each season we *know* some backup running backs are lottery tickets that will pay out. We just don't know for sure which ones. And each season we *know* some RB starters will lose their fantasy footing.
Last summer Najee Harris had an RB11 ADP. Teammate Jaylen Warren ended up scoring more points. Miles Sanders was the RB19 and then ceded the bell cow role to Chuba Hubbard. Alexander Mattison (RB20) lost ground to Ty Chandler. And so on.
I'm not talking about injuries. In most cases they're unforeseeable, like losing Nick Chubb for the season in Week 2. And it's brutal when it happens. But worse than that, I think, is the gradual realization that one of our starting RBs is no longer worth starting. We waste a week or two or more plugging him in, hoping he snaps back, and settling for unsettlingly low production.
Which 2024 RBs are at risk of losing significant touches to a backup? A couple weeks ago I discussed De'Von Achane's ridiculously amazing and unsustainable rookie numbers. 7.8 yards per carry? In a league where 5.0 is rarified air, Achane resided somewhere in the stratosphere. He also struggled with injuries. Raheem Mostert isn't going anywhere (as long as his newfound durability holds up). And then there's rookie Jaylen Wright.
I recently described Wright as a "potentially huge bargain" when his RB ADP was 49. Now it's 50. And although preseason games don't tell us a lot, he seized the moment with a 10-55-1 rushing line. There's not much room for Miami's #3 RB to improve his ADP. He'd need to leapfrog a bunch of backups and 1B running backs. So he's still priced about right.
However, this takes us back to Achane and the likelihood that his reps will be managed. The Dolphins are built for a Super Bowl run. That's 20 or 21 games. They have three or four RBs (if you can Jeff Wilson) who can be effective with 10+ touches. While Wright might need an injury to Achane or Mostert to become fantasy relevant, Achane doesn't have much room for error with his overall-23 / RB11 ADP remains.
This is why I've been fading Achane all summer. As long as Wright continues to prove he belongs, Miami will have a tough time keeping him on the sidelines. A 14-10-6 Achane-Mostert-Wright split seems realistic. Unless Achane ends up being one of the greatest NFL backs in history, 14 touches per game probably won't get him in the top 8. His ADP is far more ceiling than floor, and that concerns me.
Looking forward to reading your perspectives, and also which #1 RBs (James Conner? Rhamondre Stevenson?) are most likely to lost fantasy value to a backup.
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