Each summer some of you ask how my PPR rankings should be adjusted for Half PPR or Standard. Basically, which players shift and by how much. I share my thoughts, and that's that.
But it got me thinking last night about how the *market* adjusts for Half PPR and Standard compared to PPR, and whether those adjustments actually make sense.
Here's what I mean: In PPR, draftable WRs and TEs and many starting RBs are useful for obvious reasons. We're getting extra points with those guys that we're not getting with QBs. In Half PPR, RB/WR/TE advantages diminish a bit. And with Standard, relatively speaking, those advantages are gone.
The 10th best RB in PPR last year, Jahmyr Gibbs, scored 242.1 points, which was 67.6 points more than the 30th best RB (Zeke Elliott). But in Standard, the 10th best RB (also Gibbs) scored 190.1 points, which was 54.7 points more than the 30th best RB (Jaylen Warren). Again, at RB, WR, and TE, scoring edges for PPR become *lesser* scoring edges in Half PPR and even lesser in Standard.
And this whole time, QBs don't change. Except they do. Because when the value of an RB10 drops -- and really, when the value of pretty much every RB, WR, and TE drops -- it means the value of QBs increases.
So we should expect that the market makes these adjustments. Wherever QBs are ranked in PPR, they should be ranked the same or higher (i.e. better) in Half PPR, and the same or even higher in Standard.
But that's not what's happening. In the latest FantasyPros composite of player ADPs, the top PPR QBs are Josh Allen (Overall 23), Patrick Mahomes (27), Jalen Hurts (29), Lamar Jackson (38), and C.J. Stroud (48). In Half PPR, they are (in order) the Overall 22, 31, 32, 39, and 46. Allen and Stroud earn tiny bumps, while Mahomes, Hurts, and Jackson actually lose value.
For Standard, the ADPs are (in order) 22, 30, 31, 42, and 51. Lining these rankings up with PPR, we can see Allen has moved up one spot and everyone else has dropped.
This isn't logical. I get why it might be happening. FantasyPros pulls online draft data from various sources. We're all human, and we're drafting the best we can. But the problem is that many people draft based on these same flawed ADPs, and those drafts then help shape tomorrow's ADPs. And so on.
If you're using my PPR rankings -- or really, any PPR rankings -- and you have a Standard draft coming up, I'd suggest moving draftable QBs up about one round. For Half PPR, about half a round. It's a quick-and-easy way to bump quarterbacks without overpaying for them.
If you stick to online ADPs, be aware of the risks. There's no good reason why Standard QBs' value compared to RBs, WRs, and TEs should be less than PPR QBs' value. And yet that's what's happening. Most of your opponents probably have no idea. So let's keep it that way.
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