Building off of yesterday's column, each year there are teams we *know* we want to invest in if given the chance. Offensive juggernauts tend to be fantasy friendly, so given the choice between a #2 WR in a middling offense and a #2 in a high-scoring offense . . . well, no need to belabor the point.
And then there are teams to avoid. Last season's worst squad, the Panthers, might run it back (in the worst way) this season. They are built to underwhelm, barring a minor miracle. While an improved offensive line should help, drafting any of their players requires a leap of faith.
With rookie RB Jonathon Brooks still on the mend from an ACL tear and likely to miss most/all of September -- and then presumably ramp up gradually when healthy -- managers' meager Carolina options are now close to abysmal.
He and recently injured rookie Xavier Legette were this franchise's first two picks in the 2024 draft. While the Packers surrounded Jordan Love with an incredible collection of WR/TE playmakers in the 2023 draft, the Panthers left rookie Bryce Young high and dry. The #1 overall pick didn't have much of a chance (though he largely squandered the chances he had). And sure, Adam Thielen was fantasy relevant. But if you drafted / picked up any other player, you probably regretted it.
When investing in weekly-startable players, I want clearly defined depth charts. There should be little-to-no doubt that #1 WR John Doe will remain the #1 all season, or that #1 RB Pete Doe (no relation) will remain the bell cow, or at least no worse than a 225+ touch back. The deeper we go in drafts, of course the more risks we're willing to take. Gimme backup RBs who can handle big workloads, or a great rookie TE playing behind a post-prime veteran in deep leagues.
Carolina's injury woes will compel some/many managers to throw in the towel on this team, if they haven't already. There's a decent chance that Diontae Johnson and Thielen will cancel each other out, unless Young takes a big step forward. Legette's WR57 ADP is about to plummet; he's been my WR72 for some time, and I don't understand why he's been even fringe-draftable.
And the painful backfield is becoming a brutally hot mess. Brooks' ADP heading into this weekend -- before his offensive coordinator acknowledged delays in the rookie's ACL recovery -- was RB26. Absolutely insane. He's been outside my top 40 for a while, and in fact Hubbard has been ahead of him, because Brooks' injury was already baked into my rankings. That's why Brooks' overall ADP on Friday was 150 compared to an overall-76 ADP. That's not just a fade. That's "run away."
To be clear, that doesn't mean Brooks has no value. It just means that the market must over-correct before I'm willing to invest, and it'll take more bad news (I think) before he drops into the top 145-150 range.
Throwing it out to all of you: Are there any other teams you're essentially fading this season, like the Giants or Broncos, or Patriots? And the tougher question is what it would take for you to invest in their best fantasy player.
Because for my money, that's one of the keys to drafting: How much does a player's stock have to drop before you're willing to take the risk?
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