Yesterday longtime FF4W community member Tyler Nelson asked about pace-of-play stats. As most of you know, it's essentially how many offensive plays a team averaged per game. Other sites compile these stats far better than I can.
But it got me thinking about different angles. Pace of play is important because "experts" tell us it's important. Does that mean they should influence our fantasy projections?
Last year the Browns led the league with 69.8 offensive plays per game. The Lions were #2 at 66.9. That 2.9-play gap is actually huge. The Falcons averaged 64.2 plays (2.7 below the Lions), yet Atlanta is #13 in pace-of-play. So Cleveland dominated compared to the rest of the NFL. In fact, across the last five seasons, only the 2020 Chargers averaged more (70.4).
While that L.A. squad was stacked on offense, and while they produced more offensive plays during this stretch, that didn't entirely translate into fantasy success. Justin Herbert was the QB9 in points per game. Austin Ekeler was the RB12. Keenan Allen was the WR6 . . . and no other wideout finished in the top 50. And Hunter Henry was the TE11.
Now let's look at last year's Browns--one of the best pace-of-play teams in recent memory. Joe Flacco was the QB4 in five contests. Balance that out with Deshaun Watson (QB26 in six games) and the anemic play of P.J. Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Jeff Driskel, and it's a miracle this team finished #1 in this category. Putting aside Nick Chubb's 1.3 games played, Jerome Ford led the backfield as the RB25. Amari Cooper was the WR18, and no other wideout cracked the top 60. David Njoku came on strong with Flacco to finish as the TE7.
Right after the Lions this past season were the Cowboys, Saints, Bills, and Jaguars, and then the Eagles, Chargers, Bears, and Panthers. And on the other end of the spectrum, the Seahawks averaged the fewest offensive plays per game, followed by the Titans, Raiders, Broncos, Patriots, 49ers, and Steelers. San Fran is the clear outlier, while the others kind of makes sense.
Digging into various numbers in recent years, my sense that "fast" pace-of-play is moderately irrelevant. We can't read too much into it. There are fantasy-rich teams like Detroit and Dallas, and there are also plenty of rough spots.
Conversely, "slow" pace-of-play aligns more with bad fantasy conditions. There are exceptions, like the previously mentioned Niners, which have been in the bottom third in plays-per-game each of the last three years despite their top fantasy guys frequently crushing it. But on the whole, this is more bankable. The question is how well we can predict which teams will operate "slowly," and frankly, many of those teams are already commonly known to have many sub-par fantasy options.
In case you're wondering, the relationship between defensive plays-per-game and fantasy success operates the opposite way. And it makes sense that teams running a lot of offensive plays don't have to play defense as often, and vice versa for teams running fewer offensive plays. Last year the eight teams running the fewest defensive plays were (in order) the Browns, Cowboys, Bills, Panthers, Bears, Lions, 49ers, and Chiefs. Naturally Carolina sticks out. They yielded the fourth-most points. Maybe their opponents had more big plays.
Last year the eight teams running the most defensive plays were (in order) the Seahawks, Colts, Commanders, Chargers, Ravens, Eagles, Titans, and Vikings. That's all over the map -- a mix of great fantasy squads and weak fantasy squads, plus some in between.
So the randomness seems to be with teams that run the most offensive plays and teams that run the most defensive plays. Clearer actionable data comes with teams running the fewest offensive plays and teams running the fewest defensive plays.
My advice is to mostly ignore occasional preseason reports about teams planning to "speed up their play" (i.e. run more offensive plays). The market might respond by slightly increasing those players' values. And many teams in the most-offensive-plays category produce great fantasy players. But you'll probably be better off assessing the offenses as a whole (e.g. 49ers > Panthers) rather than focusing on one over-hyped stat.
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