When you draft a wide receiver, do you think about the durability of his quarterback? I thought I did, but apparently not as much as I wish I did.
Last summer my rankings had the aged Aaron Rodgers as the overall-147 compared to an overall-95 ADP. Yet I pegged Garrett Wilson as a bargain at his WR-19 ADP. Didn't make sense. Maybe it was an oversight, or maybe I figured Wilson was largely QB-proof (he wasn't/isn't, at least not yet). Rodgers was a higher-than-normal injury risk. I should have been consistent with his WRs.
Or maybe not. I ranked the aging Matthew Stafford at #194, well below his overall-165 ADP. I also didn't trust Cooper Kupp, even before his preseason injury. But I placed Puka Nacua 105 spots ahead of his ADP and Demarcus Robinson 261 spots ahead of his ADP. Ridiculously, I also had Van Jefferson 143 spots ahead of his ADP. If I were really that down on Stafford, why would three of his top four WRs be massive bargains?
Rodgers and Stafford once again headline this season's crop of "How much can we trust them?" quarterbacks. And it raises the question: Should we downgrade WRs who play with these diminishing and/or injury-prone QBs?
After playing only 12 games in back-to-back campaigns, Lamar Jackson got back on track in a big way last year. He's already #3 in all-time QB rushing attempts and won't turn 28 until January. He's on track the break the record at age 29. But that's a lot of carries. The record holder, Cam Newton, started breaking down physically at around 900 carries. Russell Wilson's similarly steep decline started at roughly 850 carries.
Jackson is at 875. Yes, I like him at his overall-40 ADP. But part of that is FOMO. He can still dominate, and that's hard to pass up. And I also don't want an opponent to play him against me.
It's a little harder to connect WRs with dual-threat QBs. Jackson was the fantasy QB1 in 2019 despite playing only 15 games. His points per game were among the highest for any position in history. Yet he threw for only 3,127 yards. His #1 WR, Marquise Brown, finished as the WR46. His other starting wideouts, Willie Snead and Miles Boykin, weren't even in the top 70.
This year, Zay Flowers' market value (overall-58 ADP) is probably in line with people's understand of Jackson -- that he'll probably never be top 12 in passing yards, and that's okay. But if he's a greater-than-average injury risk, shouldn't we consider the impact of having backup Josh Johnson under center?
Interestingly, Tua Tagovailoa is in the opposite camp. He led the league in passing yards last year but owns a QB15 ADP. Concussions have threatened his career. Last season he took an important step forward. But the market still doesn't trust him. And yet, the market trusts Tyreek Hill (WR2 ADP) and, mostly, Jaylen Waddle (WR20 ADP). Those two exceeded 2,800 combined receiving yards in 16 and 14 games, respectively. Imagine what they could with 17. Imagine what *Tua* could do, especially with a healthy and catch-happy backfield.
I'd understand this better if Tua's ADP were around QB10. Similarly, it would make more sense of Hill were outside the top 10, or if Waddle were outside the top 32. Instead, if you think Tua's a higher-than-normal injury risk, there's no good reason to invest in Hill or (probably) Waddle at their ADPs. And if you think Tua's durability is average or better, then he appears to be one of fantasy's biggest QB bargains. But the current breakdown doesn't add up.
In the end, we take the risks we want to own. The question is whether we can grasp the complexities of each risk. For any QB whose health is far from assured, we need to understand the often complex link between his value and those of his top WRs.
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