Yesterday I wrapped up my preseason fantasy bargains rundown and sent it to subscribers. I want to take a moment to highlight one player in particular.
The 2023 NFL draft marked the first time four consecutive WRs were taken in the opening round: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison. Flowers netted the most catches, while Addison had the most receiving yards and scores. Johnston flopped. And JSN -- last year's most highly touted rookie wideout -- was merely "good."
In fantasy, that meant he wasn't good enough.
Interestingly, Addison had the most bullish ADP that summer (WR37), followed by JSN (WR39), Flowers (WR47), and Johnston (WR49). At the time it made sense. Addison had a relatively clear path to the Vikings' #2 WR job in a plus offense, and JSN's talent was sure to keep him semi-relevant, even as Seattle's #3 WR. Baltimore's run-heavy offense made Flowers riskier, while Johnston had the worst of all worlds: arguably not as talented as the first three and firmly capped at #3 or #4 on the depth chart.
Although snap count isn't everything, it's usually a pretty good indication of a player's ceiling. No one gets points on the sideline. And so it's notable that Addison led this foursome with 921 snaps. Flowers had 905 but averaged slightly more per game. Johnston had 748. All three started 10+ games (Flowers started all 16 of his).
But what about JSN? He officially started only three contests and finished with only 675 snaps. That comes to 0.22 fantasy points per snap, which was more than Johnston's 0.13 and only narrowly behind Flowers' 0.23 and Addison's 0.24. It stands to reason that JSN *might* join Addison and Flowers as possible/probable top-32 WRs if he earns a weekly starting role.
For this and many other reasons, JSN's WR43 ADP doesn't make sense. It assumes he'll continue to languish behind nearly 32-year-old Tyler Lockett on the depth chart. That seems ludicrous. Lockett just had his worst catch rate and lowest yardage total since 2017 despite earning the second-most targets of his career. His average yards-after-the-catch was his lowest ever recorded. Quarterbacks (primarily Geno Smith) averaged an 86.6 QB rating when throwing to him -- again, the worst mark ever recorded for Lockett. By contract, quarterbacks averaged a 92.0 QB rating when passing to JSN.
Granted, sometimes the rookie didn't help his cause, like dropping 10 passes. But on the whole, he looked like a first-round pick.
Talent + opportunity often equals success. I expect JSN's usage to rise, just as it did mid-season last year. He didn't exceed a 59% snap share in any of his first four games, during which time he averaged 4.6 fantasy points. He exceeded 61% in every other game, when he averaged 10.1 fantasy points.
That 10.1 is, for all intents and purposes, his baseline entering Year 2. In 2023, 10.1 per game would've made him the overall WR39. So it's not hard to understand why he's a bargain at his WR43 ADP -- and not just any bargain, but a really good, ascending football player in an offense featuring a diminishing receiver (Lockett).
This is one way to spot an undervalued player. In JSN's case, it suggests his floor is around WR38/39, while his realistic ceiling is around WR30. (For context, Lockett was the WR32 last season.)
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