It's probably too soon to be overly concerned, but yeah, we need to talk about Jahmyr Gibbs. He strained his hamstring in practice yesterday. That might be it for his preseason. And even if he's fine for Week 1, we have to wonder if Detroit will contemplate deploying him a little differently this season.
Or maybe that was the plan all along. (Or, maybe that *should* have been the plan all along.) The most touches Gibbs had in a college season was 195, with 44 of those coming through the air. Of the 14 running backs taken in the first three rounds (Day 1 and Day 2) of the 2022 and 2023 drafts, only James Cook had a lower career-high for touches. In the two years before that, only two RBs with sub-200-touch college career highs were taken in the first three rounds: Javonte Williams and Trey Sermon.
That's four out of 27 running backs drafted in Days 1 and 2 from 2020 thru 2023. The other 23 RBs averaged a college career-touch high of 264. So yeah, Gibbs & company are outliers. While that alone doesn't signal a yellow flag, it's notable that in Days 1 and 2, teams almost always prefer running backs who've shown they can be bell cows.
Gibbs remains (for now) near-elite on my draft board. He proved last season that he could rack up fantasy points more efficiently than most backs. In fact, of the 100 top RB fantasy scorers, he was #17 in points per touch (1.03). Among RBs with 75+ carries, he was #4 in efficiency behind CMC and teammates De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Gibbs can be a top-10 RB even if he's limited to around 225 touches. That makes him one of the highest-floor running backs.
And yet, we should be aware that he had 274 touches last year, including the playoffs. That's a lot for most rookies, and it's especially a lot for a prized asset who topped out at 195 touches in college.
David Montgomery remains an obvious must-draft (at least a round early) if we get Gibbs. But now there's a little more urgency to hedge our bets. Low-ceiling 28-year-old Craig Reynolds and fourth-round rookie Sione Vaki are competing for the #3 role. Vaki played both offense and defense (safety) in college, accumulating only 53 touches in his final campaign. In other words, there's no obvious bell cow if Gibbs and Montgomery are sidelined.
Let's see how Gibbs' injury looks in the coming days. If he's held out for "precautionary" reasons and all signs point to a healthy Week 1 return, then he'll remain a first-round target. And if there are any rumblings about "lingering effects" (because depending on the severity of the hamstring injury, it might not be a one-off injury), then I'll move him to round 2, elevate Montgomery, and give slight boosts to Reynolds and Vaki. Here's hoping Gibbs is fine and these contingencies are moot.
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