Rondale Moore is officially out for the season after injuring his knee a couple days ago. On the one hand, this isn't notable fantasy news. The 2021 second-round draft pick rarely got going in Arizona. Atlanta unloaded Desmond Ridder this offseason to snag the nothing-to-lose Moore in the final year of his rookie contract. Before going down, the wideout's overall ADP was 337. He was the Falcons' #4 or #5 WR, and when we tack on Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and Tyler Allgeier, he would've been no better than the #7 offensive option.
So who cares, right? Probably. But his injury opens the door a little more for physical clone Ray-Ray McCloud. Moore is considerably faster (4.29 40-yard speed compared to McCloud's 4.49). But both fit the mold of after-the-catch contributors with low fantasy ceilings.
Ran some of their numbers yesterday and was surprised (shocked?) at how similarly they operate. Last year 144 WRs had 100+ receiving yards. Some gained most of their yards through the air, and others after the catch (YAC). For example, A.T. Perry and Tre Tucker had the lowest YAC as a percentage of total receiving yards (8%). That means 92% of their receiving yards came *before* the catch. One of my favorite WR bargains, Jalen Tolbert, had the fifth-lowest percentage (13%).
On the other end of the spectrum, 87% of Mecole Hardman's receiving yards were after the catch -- far and away the highest percentage. (For context, the WR league average was 35%.) Teammates Kadarius Toney (76%) and Rashee Rice (70%) were #'s 2 and 3.
What's fascinating is that McCloud was #4 (64%) and Moore was #6 (61%). And even more fascinating, out of the 180 WRs with at least 300 receiving yards since 2021, Moore is #1 with 79% of his receiving yards coming after the catch.
Moore's loss consolidates McCloud's offensive influence. Not that it should matter much. The veteran remains a fringe deep-league roster hold. But he now has a little more breathing room on the depth chart.
Moore's loss also opens the door for Robinson, and to a lesser extent, Allgeier. The Falcons delivered 124 targets to their RBs last season, which was the sixth most in the NFL. The Cardinals (Moore's old team) had the fifth fewest (84). In the only other season Moore played at least half his team's games, the Cards has the 11th fewest RB targets. Maybe a coincidence. Maybe a function of Moore's outsized usage near the line of scrimmage.
I'd bet Moore would have secured 25-30 targets this season, assuming no big injuries to McCloud or another starting wideout. Those targets will go elsewhere. McCloud might inherit a handful. But there's a great-than-0% chance Robinson will be the biggest winner. The ascending star netted 86 targets as a rookie, securing 43 in his first 10 games (4.3 average) and then 43 more in his final seven (6.1 average). His path to 100+ targets in 2024 just opened a little wider.
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