Marquise "Hollywood" Brown is officially out 4-6 weeks with an injured sternoclavicular joint, which apparently is what connects the arm to the rest of the body. Around the same time this news hit, the league issued an innocuous-yet-loaded statement about Rashee Rice: "Following the conclusion of the legal process, the NFL will review the matter under the Personal Conduct Policy.”
In the past few years, the league has applied this policy to hand down various suspensions, including to Deshaun Watson (11 games), Antonio Brown (eight games), Kareem Hunt (eight games), Jameis Winston (three games), and Zeke Elliott (six games). Alleged or demonstrable abuse of women and/or children has often yielded the steepest punishments.
Who knows what'll happen, but my rankings assume 2-3 games for Rice. And assuming Brown is out for a chunk of September, Xavier Worthy is poised to lead all K.C. wideouts in fantasy points during the opening month. The 21-year-old rookie set a Combine record with a 4.21 40-yard dash. There's an opening for him to take over the #1 WR role even when his teammates (assuming Rice is suspended) return.
And if that sounds farfetched, consider the Chiefs' ADPs heading into last season, when Kadarius Toney (WR45) and Skyy Moore (WR48) were vying for the #1 job. Where was Rice? WR68. A distant third.
No doubt, Rice is in a different spot heading into 2024. He's an established rising star. The hype surrounding Toney and Moore was based more on prior draft capital than on demonstrable NFL abilities. Still, it's important to remember that Rice's success was based, in part, on the sizable talent gap between him and every other K.C. wide receiver. Their #2 WR in targets and receiving yards was Justin Watson.
Rice's 17% target share in 2017 seems unrealistic this year unless Brown or Travis Kelce miss most of the season. Worthy is currently #3 in ADP behind Rice and Brown, though the gap is closing. The rookie appears to be the best value play.
Elsewhere, Tyrone Tracy is merely "week-to-week" suggesting that Eric Gray isn't yet an automatic draft pick. Let's see if Tracy can return by the final preseason game. If not, we should expect Gray to open the season as the Giants' #2 RB.
And J.J. McCarthy's knee surgery might be a bigger deal than his (and Sam Darnold's) weak ADPs suggest. Four of Minnesota's first six games are at home, and while their schedule isn't exactly "friendly," Darnold realistically could be a top-18 QB until/unless McCarthy wins the job later this year.
This is probably the second-best receiving corps Darnold has ever had. The best was in Week 18 last season, when he helped the Niners engineer two consecutive 75-yard TD drives to open the game. Then Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel hit the showers. George Kittle didn't play at all. It was a throwback to Darnold's early-season success in Carolina the year before.
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