Have fielded a lot of questions this month about ranking CeeDee Lamb #1 on my draft board, Ja'Marr Chase #2, and Brandon Aiyuk #14 (nearly two rounds ahead of his ADP). A couple days ago, I replied to a comment about Chase, sharing my opinion (candidly, without evidence) that star holdouts on playoff-caliber teams generally get paid. Maybe not paid everything they want. But paid enough to return to the fold.
Le'Veon Bell is one recent exception. After the Steelers went 13-3 in 2017, they refused to give in to their star RB's contract demands the following summer. So he refused to play, opening the door for unheralded backup James Conner. Then the Jets forked over $27 million guaranteed, which they probably deeply regretted when the team started 0-4 and their newly installed "franchise" RB was averaging 2.9 yards per carry.
As most managers vividly remember, Bell had been a perennial elite performer. After finishing as the RB9 in points per game as a 2013 rookie, he went on to be the RB1 (2014), RB4 (2015), RB1 (2016), and RB2 (2017).
But running backs are different than wide receivers. We can all understand that. Their average career length is, according to reports, the lowest in the league. And fall-offs sometimes can be easy to spot. In Bell's case, he had 431 touches in 2017. That followed a 2016 campaign when he had 405. Yeah, that was a bright red flag heading into contract negotiations.
Paying a pre-prime or in-his-prime WR is entirely different. The Cowboys, Bengals, and Niners are all serious playoff contenders, and at least one (San Francisco) is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, though Vegas bettors are confident enough about Cincy and Dallas to put them in the top 10. Lamb, Chase, and Aiyuk are all essential pieces on their respective teams.
So yesterday CeeDee was the first official domino to fall, becoming the second-highest-paid wideout. This followed news that Chase was back at practice, signaling his (and presumably Cincy's) intention to strike a deal. Whether or not Aiyuk is traded, the 49ers assuredly will enter this season well-positioned to make another title run. Assuming no team gives up a comparable talent, I still believe San Fran will meet him more than halfway to once again pursue a championship before CMC and George Kittle reach their post-prime years (probably imminently).
The PR fallout of letting a star player go -- someone with five, six, seven, or more years of great production remaining -- would be tough for any franchise. For a franchise with title hopes, it could be devastating.
For these reasons and more, I've been bullish about these three guys all summer. Again, there's no science to it. I haven't researched every preseason holdout of the past, say, 10 years to see what happened to them. But there's enough logic to bank my fantasy decisions on it.
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