After I shared yesterday that Brock Purdy is now below the strangely undervalued Jared Goff on my draft board, longtime community member Chris Grant commented on the veteran quarterback's weak ADP: "Goff at QB15 seems like robbery."
With Detroit making its 2024 preseason debut tonight, it's a good time to talk about Goff and the rest of the deep collection of good/great fantasy QBs. It seems to be like this every summer, where many of the top 14-22 quarterbacks could easily finish in the top 12.
Let's be honest: If you were looking at ADPs for the first time all year and noticed Goff at QB15, would you think it was a little nuts? What about Tua Tagovailoa at QB13? Or Trevor Lawrence at QB17? Last year they finished 7th, 11th, and 12th, respectively. The market is telling us they'll do worse. In many ways, it makes no sense.
But who do you bump to make room for three guys with strong top-10-quarterback abilities? Jayden Daniels (QB12 ADP) and Purdy (QB11) are good places to start. So is Kyler Murray (QB10). Then things get really difficult, at least for me.
Jordan Love (QB9) seems to belong in the top 10. Dak Prescott (QB8), Joe Burrow (QB7), and Anthony Richardson (QB6) all have big ceilings. Maybe Richardson drops down. Then again, his dominance last year (when healthy) can't be ignored. After that, we're playing with fire: C.J. Stroud (QB5), Lamar Jackson (QB4), Jalen Hurts (QB3), Patrick Mahomes (QB2), and Josh Allen (QB1). While I don't agree at all with the ordering, my rankings include all nine of these guys in the top 10. Because I can't justify dropping any of them -- even for Goff or Tua. (Lawrence is actually my QB8.)
So in a one-QB league, are you focused on landing an elite option? Or are you cool fading the position and then scooping up Goff, Tua, Lawrence, or some other potential bargain?
I hope I have the patience to fade. Regardless, we need to be prepared to make tough in-draft decisions like this one. C.J. Stroud has an overall-49 ADP. DeVonta Smith is at 47. If I'm picking at #44 early in the fourth round of my 14-team league, and if both guys are available, I'd *want* to go Smith, who I *think* will have a great bounce-back season. Then again, Stroud has terrific top-3 QB upside. Do I settle later for someone with less assured elite potential, like Goff or Tua or Lawrence?
My QB dilemma highlights one of my favorite pre-draft strategies. When you know where you're picking (assuming a snake draft), read through each of the top 200-or-so ADPs. In the early rounds, focusing largely on where you're drafting. So if you pick first overall in a 12-team league, then the "next best" players (if you're going by ADP) at the round 2/3 turn might be Chris Olave, Sam LaPorta, Drake London, Travis Kelce, De'Von Achane, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes. Which of those guys would you most want? Or is it "none of the above?" Or maybe it depends whether Allen or Mahomes (or both) are already off the board. Would you then get nervous and reach for your next-best quarterback, anticipating a mini-run before the draft returns to you in rounds 4/5?
I always want to take pressure off myself at a draft, and one way to do that is to run through the first few rounds, get a sense of which players I want most at/around my draft spots, and determine whether I'd be comfortable fading a position. If I commit to fading QB, it means I won't second-guess myself if/when an elite-upside quarterback falls in my lap, choosing instead a high-upside RB, WR, or TE. Then I'll make sure to target (for example) Goff, Tua or Lawrence about a round (or sometimes two rounds based on draft position) ahead of their ADP.
What do you make of this year's QBs? Are you planning to invest big draft capital on, say, a top-5 guy? Or do you want to fade and then scoop up someone you think is a huge bargain?
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