On his fourth offensive snap in Week 1 of the 2021 season, Niners starting RB Raheem Mostert was knocked out for the year. After 321 career carries and numerous injury-plagued campaigns, and with his 30th birthday around the corner, Mostert appeared to be finished.
His replacement that first game was rookie sixth-round draft pick Elijah Mitchell, who rumbled for 104 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. The Mitchell era had begun. In 11 games that year he averaged 15.0 fantasy points -- good for #2 among rookie RBs and #16 overall. He looked like a dynasty mainstay.
Three years and only two starts later, his time in San Francisco appears to be over. He'll miss the entire season with yet another injury. It's been a slow, yet dramatic fall for this once promising talent, and ironically it's coincided with the sudden durability (and dominance) of the 30-something Mostert.
Now we're left with the fantasy fallout heading into 2024. Most managers are all in on CMC. His overall-1 ADP has not shifted all summer. In many shallow leagues, his handcuff wouldn't be draftable.
Except CMC shouldn't be #1 overall. I wrote about this on August 1st, which interestingly (and not surprisingly) was the day I pushed Bijan Robinson (and others) ahead of CMC on my rankings.
Because with 417 touches last season (including the playoffs), the all-world Niner running back is a massive injury/regression risk. Since the dawn of the NFL, RBs 27 years of age or older have earned 400+ touches a total of 25 times. 23 of those times (92%), they've regressed statistically the following year. The two statistically minor exceptions were Walter Payton (1.1-point year-over-year gain) and Marshawn Lynch (27.0-point year-over-year gain).
Granted, CMC could regress 15% and still comfortably finish as the RB1. But that's an optimistic scenario. Of the 11 400+ touch RBs who were 27 years old, their average net fantasy-point regression was 29%. For the six 28-year-olds, it was 33%. For the three 29-year-olds, it was 39% . . .
You get the idea. CMC's 28. Maybe he'll be another outlier. But if you had to bet on him, how bullish would you be? Bullish enough to invest the #1 overall pick?
That makes yesterday's Mitchell news a big deal. If you agree that CMC is a major injury/regression risk, then you agree there's a good chance he'll sit multiple games. That'll open the door for Jordan Mason and/or rookie Isaac Guerendo (and/or an as-yet-unnamed addition). In the 49ers' dynamic passing attack, any starting RB could be fantasy relevant. That makes Mason and Guerendo fascinating assets, even if you don't draft CMC.
Mason currently is the safer play. He knows the offense and has averaged a blistering 5.6 yards on 83 carries. A former undrafted free agent, the 25-year-old is a rare example of an RB who's run more efficiently in the pros than in college (when he netted only 5.2 YPC). But he was hardly a workhorse in college and hasn't exceeded 11 carries in any NFL contest. It's hard to imagine him taking over the backfield if McCaffrey gets hurt.
Guerendo also wasn't a college bell cow, though he was more effective than Mason in the passing game. He was drafted in the fourth round this year during a run on RBs, immediately after Will Shipley and Ray Davis and shortly before Braelon Allen. Guerendo might turn out to be a fantastic complementary running back, or perhaps more. For now he's an intriguing prospect.
The 49ers also might add a seasoned back on the verge of retirement (e.g. Latavius Murray). Or if McCaffrey is out for an extended period pre-trade deadline, San Fran might try to land a replacement. Because despite his injury woes, Mitchell had shown he could handle 20+ touches. With Mason and Guerendo, nothing is assured.
Still, in deep leagues I'd take a flyer on one or both, stash them the first 2-3 weeks (before byes kick in), and then reassess.
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