Are you torn on Caleb Williams? I've been going back and forth since the Bears drafted him. Entering the offseason, Chicago already had one exceptional wideout and one ascending tight end. Now they have four guys who could catch 70 passes apiece: D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, and rookie Rome Odunze. Tack on D'Andre Swift (62 catches three years ago), and this might be (on paper) the best collection of offensive playmakers any rookie QB has had -- especially someone as heralded as Williams.
So there are many reasons to invest heavily in Williams at his QB15 ADP, including a favorable schedule. They face only one of the eight best defenses (based on Bleacher Report rankings). Based on FantasyPros fantasy rankings, 15 of their 17 games are against teams outside the top 13 DSTs. That's highly unusual. It's almost a perfect storm of good fortune.
But there are also plenty of yellow flags. The Bears' o-line needs to play to its potential, and also stay healthy (something it's struggled with). Allen is now 32 and has missed 11 games these past two seasons. Swift missed three games in each of this first three campaigns, but he's coming off a career-high 229 carries -- not just NFL career-high, but lifelong career-high (including high school and college). For most starting RBs, it's not a big deal. For someone like Swift, it's uncharted territory.
And getting picked #1 overall in the draft doesn't guarantee Year 1 success. Not even close. Williams deserves the hype, though I'd argue his status as the top pick pushes his hype too far.
Quarterbacks have comprised 15 of the last 21 #1 overall draft picks. Let's go back even further, covering the last 20 top picks that were QBs, including some rushing totals for run-friendly quarterbacks:
1993: Drew Bledsoe -- 12 starts (13 games), 2,494 / 15 / 15 passing line
1998: Peyton Manning -- 16 starts/games, 3,379 / 26 / 28
1999: Tim Couch -- 14 starts (15 games), 2,447 / 15 / 13
2001: Michael Vick -- 2 starts (8 games), 785 / 2 / 3 passing and 289 / 1 rushing
2002: David Carr -- 16 starts/games, 2,592 / 9 / 15 -- QB35 in fantasy points per game
2003: Carson Palmer -- 0 starts/games
2004: Eli Manning -- 7 starts (9 games), 1,043 / 6 / 9 -- QB48 PPG
2005: Alex Smith -- 7 starts (9 games), 875 / 1 / 11 (not a typo) -- QB65 PPG
2007: JaMarcus Russell -- 1 start (4 games), 373 / 2 / 4 -- QB62 PPG
2009: Matthew Stafford -- 10 starts/games, 2,267 / 13 / 20 -- QB22 PPG
2010: Sam Bradford -- 16 starts/games, 3,512 / 18 / 15 -- QB31 PPG
2011: Cam Newton -- 16 starts/games, 4,051 / 20 / 17 passing and 706 / 14 rushing -- QB3 PPG
2012: Andrew Luck -- 16 starts/games, 4,374 / 23 / 18 -- QB10 PPG
2015: Jameis Winston -- 16 starts/games, 4,042 / 22 / 15 passing and 213 / 6 rushing -- QB19 PPG
2016: Jared Goff -- 7 starts/games, 1,089 / 5 / 7 -- QB43 PPG
2018: Baker Mayfield -- 13 starts (14 games), 3,725 / 27 / 14 -- QB20 PPG
2019: Kyler Murray -- 16 starts/games, 3,722 / 20 / 12 passing and 544 / 4 rushing -- QB12 PPG
2020: Joe Burrow -- 10 starts/games, 2,688 / 13 / 5 -- QB19 PPG
2021: Trevor Lawrence -- 17 starts/games, 3,641 / 12 / 17 passing and 334 / 2 rushing -- QB37 PPG
2023: Bryce Young -- 16 starts/games, 2,877 / 11 / 10 passing and 253 / 0 rushing -- QB40 PPG
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Yes, most of these rookies flopped. Think about the hype that surrounded many of them. Didn't matter. My fantasy data goes back only to 2002, but since then only one rookie #1 overall pick has been a top-9 QB. Only two others finished in the top 18. That's not random. It's what happens when bad teams land their "franchise" quarterback but lack the surrounding infrastructure to help elevate them.
Cam was the exception because, like Caleb Williams, he joined a team with a strong offensive nucleus. Steve Smith still played like he was in his prime. Greg Olsen was ascending. Jeremy Shockey was still good (and healthy). The backfield duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart each netted 5.4 yards per carry. That was also the team's YPC -- the second-highest team YPC spanning 2011 to 2018. Cam worked his magic on the ground. It all clicked.
And this is why I'm wary of pushing Williams into my top 12 and why he's currently a small fade on my draft board. The often ugly track record of #1 overall picks is a reminder that even seemingly "can't-miss" prospects flail in their first season. Williams has built-in advantages that most of his former #1 peers lacked. Yet he remains a fantasy mystery, seemingly as capable of finishing in the top 12 as he is finishing outside the top 20.
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