Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Patrick Mahomes reliably elite?
2. Is Isiah Pacheco a top-12 RB?
3. Can Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, and/or Xavier Worthy be weekly fantasy starters?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Is Travis Kelce still reliably elite?
It was one of the greatest regular season games in NFL history. Week 11 of the 2018 season. Chiefs vs. Rams. A young, ascending receiver named Cooper Kupp was knocked out for the year the week before--an injury that eventually might have cost L.A. that season's title, when they lost to the Patriots in Super Bowl 52. And that turned out to be the New England dynasty's final championship.
For the Chiefs, 23-year-old Patrick Mahomes, 24-year-old Tyreek Hill, and 23-year-old Kareem Hunt were budding stars, anchoring an offense alongside the inimitable Travis Kelce. The franchise had enjoyed five consecutive winning seasons. Now they were 9-1, poised to seize the moment and claim their first Super Bowl in 49 years.
But they lost to the Rams 54-51. And then before their next game, a videotape surfaced showing Hunt getting in a fight with a woman, shoving her to the ground, and then kicking her while she was down. Kansas City made a decision many other franchises simply don't: they cut him loose. On pace for 1,748 offensive yards and 20 touchdowns. Irreplaceable. One of the best running backs in the league on the best team. Gone.
The Chiefs limped into the playoffs despite being the AFC's #1 seed, and then the lost to New England in overtime in the AFC Championship. Had they won, we would have witnessed a Chiefs-Rams rematch that (I believe) would have been the most-watched and/or highest-scoring Super Bowl in history.
I remember wondering after that AFC title game loss how the Chiefs would recover. Would they return to dominance? Or was this their one golden shot at the biggest prize? They made a morally necessary decision at a time when most league decisions were (and are) driven solely by wins and losses. In the short term, they paid the price while preserving their dignity. In the long term, they've gone on to win three Super Bowls while reaching five straight AFC Championship games.
Entering this season, they're co-favorites (with the Niners) to win it all again. Simply incredible considering where this franchise stood in the pre-dawn of their dynasty.
Everything starts with Mahomes, of course. We are witnessing greatness on a level that cannot be fully explained. This combination of gaudy stats and franchise success is rare. Tom Brady was 30 before he became a big-time passer. If Mahomes plays until he's 41 or 42, he might break a lot of seemingly unbreakable passing records. A long way to go, but doable, which speaks volumes.
Fantasy-wise, this might not make sense, but hopefully it does: I'm not on board with his QB2 ADP. Based on fantasy floors, sure. He's as dependable as they come. But after years of middling-to-good D's, the 2023 Chiefs finally unleashed an elite defense. Mahomes averaged his fewest pass attempts per game in 2019. An aging Kelce and a still-uncertain WR corps, combined with a still-great defense, hints at slightly muted numbers for the future all-time-great quarterback. I'm fading him almost two rounds after his overall-28 ADP, which means there's no way he'll fall to me.
The WR group would give me nightmares if I still had nightmares (and actually, I do, because late-night horror films are one of my things). What's going to happen to Rashee Rice (WR36 ADP)? Can Marquise Brown (WR37 ADP) stand out on a team where he might be the #4 or even #5 offensive option? Is Xavier Worthy (WR44 ADP) ready to step up? And what the heck do we do with almost forgotten early-round busts Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore?
On paper, everything looks fine. But in fantasy, it's a mess trying to figure out how KC's wideouts will split the load and whether any of them will reach the top 30, or even top 35. For context, Rice was the overall WR27 last season. Who was #2? Justin Watson at WR77. TE Noah Gray had the team's fifth-most receiving yards. Nothing inspiring about that.
So I'm currently slightly fading Rice, Brown, and Worthy. One might be a weekly starter. But two? Barring a big suspension or a long-term injury, it's hard to see.
Meanwhile, Kelce is Kelce, as always. Believing he'd regress, he was #20 overall on my draft board last summer compared to an overal-5 ADP. As with Mahomes, I love Kelce's floor but not his ceiling, at least when it comes to his ADP (TE1 / overall-20). He's my TE2 / overall-36. Yeah, he's been other-worldly for a decade. But it's not worth paying that much for a tight end entering his age-35 campaign.
Finally, the backfield, where Isiah Pacheco missed three contests but was a must-start RB when active. He had 342 touches (including the playoffs), which doesn't really up my enthusiasm. He topped out at 182 in college. While it helps that the seemingly way-post-prime Clyde Edwards-Helaire is his handcuff, Pacheco's RB10 ADP makes me nervous. I'd like him to be closer to RB15, and that probably won't happen. If CEH looks like a liability in August, I would be surprised if KC didn't add another RB to the mix, if only to take pressure off Pacheco so that he's not pushing 300+ touches again.
---
Top 400 Preseason PPR Fantasy Rankings (Donate-What-You-Want):
(1) Venmo -- https://www.venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- https://cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- same e-mail as always: fantasyfootballforwinners@gmail.com
Extra Advice:
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/ff4w-subscriptions.html