Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Brock Purdy at top-10 QB?
2. How confident are we that Brandon Aiyuk will suit up for the Niners?
3. Is Deebo Samuel a top-20 WR?
4. Are Ricky Pearsall and/or Jauan Jennings draftable?
5. Will George Kittle be a top-6 TE?
Years (decades?) from now, Brock Purdy's NFL career might be a hotly debated topic. Why was the 2022 draft's "Mr. Irrelevant" passed over round after round in favor of eight quarterbacks, none of whom are starters today? To what extent is his success attributed to talent vs. system vs. offensive line vs. throwing to one of the best collection of playmakers?
As I'm writing this, Brandon Aiyuk and elite lineman Trent Williams are holding out. If they're somehow not in Niner uniforms by Week 1, the "hotly debated topic" will heat up. Williams didn't allow a sack last season, and his absence would make the o-line one of league's worst. Aiyuk posted a 75-1,342-7 receiving line on only 105 targets. Simply put, both guys are irreplaceable at this late stage of the offseason/preseason.
The ADP market isn't sold on last year's QB6, ranking him as the QB11. I agree for now. His 21 career starts have been, by and large, incredible. Last year he had the 14th-highest QB rating in history. It's hard to imagine him improving on those numbers, and Aiyuk's and Williams' situations make things that much more confusing. He's a fairly safe bet at QB11, but I wouldn't go much earlier.
If I followed by own advice, I'd rank Bijan Robinson ahead of universal RB1 Christian McCaffrey. CMC is coming off a dominant campaign . . . on 417 touches (including the playoffs). After injuries plagued his 2020 and 2021 seasons, he roared back in 2022 on 381 touches.
So that's 798 touches these past two years. In the old days, guys like Gerald Riggs (825 touches), John Riggins (830), and Eric Dickerson (905) could earn massive workloads in back-to-back seasons. Guys like Walter Payton and Dickerson and later LaDainian Tomlinson and others have managed to stay pretty durable and productive despite the heavy usage.
Some of you know what I'm going to say. Historically, this doesn't look great. A few years ago I created a spreadsheet of every time an RB hit 350+ touches in a season. Like all my other spreadsheets, it's updated each year to keep it 100% current ahead of the following season. The data doesn't lie. It can be interpreted in different ways, but it's pretty clear:
25 times a running back at least 27 years old has had 400+ touches. 23 of those times (92%), they've regressed statistically the following year. The two exceptions were Walter Payton (1.1-point year-over-year gain) and Marshawn Lynch (27.0-point year-over-year gain).
So there it is. And I've just talked myself into swapping CMC for Bijan at #1. And Elijah Mitchell is a nice get at his RB55 ADP.
As alluded to above, let's hold off on wideouts. Aiyuk (WR15 ADP) and Deebo Samuel (WR18 ADP) seem fine. I actually have Aiyuk in my top 10, though that assumes either things will work out in San Francisco, or (if things go from bad to worse), he'll be the uber-alpha on a non-playoff-contender, giving him 140+ targets. And not thinking much of anything about rookie Ricky Pearsall or Jauan Jennings until the Aiyuk situation is resolved. The 49ers have their Big 4; there's probably not enough room for anyone else.
Finally, George Kittle. Ranked him a round after his ADP last summer as the TE6 (compared to a TE4 ADP), and he finished as the TE6. This year he's my TE7 compared to a TE6 ADP, once again recommending him a round later than the market advises. New year, same reasons. His targets continue to drop, bottoming out (for now) at 5.6 per game in 2023, compared to 7.6+ each year from 2018 to 2020. CMC's arrival seems to be one big reason. Advancing age doesn't make him any less risky (he'll turn 31 in October). He'll probably need 8+ touchdowns to meet or exceed expectations, and that assumes his looks don't drop further.
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