Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Joe Burrow a reliable top-10 QB?
2. Can Zack Moss or Chase Brown (or both) be top-30 RBs?
3. Will Tee Higgins finish in the top 24?
4. Are any other Cincy WRs draftable?
5. Could Mike Gesicki achieve fantasy relevance?
The verdict is still out on Joe Burrow, 2020's #1 overall draft pick. He entered the league as an "old" 24-year-old, turning 25 in the middle of his rookie season. He's had two extended IR stints across four campaigns. He was 25th in QB points per game last year. Backup Jake Browning -- who hadn't thrown a regular-season pass since graduating from college in 2019 -- played comparably, and at times looked slightly better.
That's not to discount Burrow's strong 2021 and 2022 seasons. Nor does it mean Burrow is a riskier fantasy asset than other non-elite QBs. But we need to consider whether Cincy's offense is better now than it was one, two, three years ago. Tyler Boyd is gone, replaced by third-round rookie Jermaine Burton. The tight end situation remains lower-tier. And Burrow absorbing 2.8 sacks per game is probably unsustainable. It doesn't help that the team's offensive line is still a question mark, despite investing a first-rounder on OL Amarius Mims.
Burrow is priced about right at his QB8 ADP. Top 5 is doable if things break nearly perfectly. A finish outside the top 10 is entirely possible, especially if Ja'Marr Chase or Higgins misses extended time, as Chase did in 2022 and as Higgins did in 2023.
The backfield is fascinating with Joe Mixon gone. As some of you might remember, Chase Brown was one of my favorite late-draft dart throws last summer (along with Tyjae Spears). I believe the Bengals will do everything possible to establish the run, which is why I have both Brown and Zack Moss inside the top 28. This makes Brown (RB37 ADP) a terrific buy, while Moss (RB27 ADP) is an important hedge -- though in most drafts, managers will view Brown as the hedge, as he's going at least a couple rounds later.
Wideout is straightforward. Chase is Chase. He's elite for all the right reasons, one of the few WRs who can hit 35+ points. Higgins plays second fiddle, though he's capable of breaking out and is only 25 years old. I was big on Higgins last summer, and he flopped (in addition to getting injured). This year I'm neutral at his WR23 ADP, with the hope that he'll drop to the high 20's so I can select him with greater confidence. Meanwhile, it's wait-and-see for the rookie Burton (WR69 ADP), as Andrei Iosivas (WR105 ADP) looms if Burton has a slow August. Yes, Burton *should* eventually be a solid replacement for Boyd. But I don't want to overpay for a team's #3 WR.
Finally, Mike Gesicki might continue the trend of one-and-done Bengal TEs. He's a nothing-to-lose reclamation project. But he'll need to remain ahead of rookie Erick All Jr., as well as Tanner Hudson, who enjoyed 50 targets last year despite opening the season outside the depth chart's top 3. Even at his TE29 ADP, Gesicki isn't on my radar in the deepest leagues.
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