Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Caleb Williams be a top-10 QB?
2. Will D'Andre Swift consistently lead this backfield?
3. Is D.J. Moore a top-20 WR?
4. Can Keenan Allen and/or Rome Odunze be, at minimum, weekly streamers?
5. Is Cole Kmet a top-10 TE?
Three summers ago, in the aftermath of Chicago drafting Justin Fields, I wrote the following: "The best Bear QB season ever? Journeyman Erik Kramer's 26 years ago. His 3,838/29/10 season was unmatched because no Bear QB has ever thrown for 4,000+ yards, and none have thrown 30+ TDs. Every other current NFL franchise (I looked up each one) has had at least one 4,000+ yard QB season and at least one 30+ TD season."
My thinking at the time was that Fields eventually could hit both of those marks. Last year was his best statistically, as he threw for 2,562 yards and 16 scores in his 12.5 games, which comes out to 3,484/22 across a full season. In fact, he had an impressive 1,143 passing yards and 11 passing TDs in his first five contests. The following week he got hurt, then missed the next four games, and he never got back on track.
So now all eyes are on the Bears' newest QB savior, Caleb Williams. The #1 overall pick almost certainly will one-up Erik Kramer and become this franchise's most prolific single-season passer. Will it happen this year, or will he need a season or two to hit his stride? That's the huge question for any fantasy manager drafting him and/or any of his receivers. A locked-in Williams could/should crush his QB15 ADP. When Fields entered the league, Darnell Mooney was his #1 wideout and a severely post-prime Allen Robinson was his #2. By contrast, Williams has been handed a ready-made offense. All he needs to do is . . . well, play somewhere close to his Year 1 potential. He's currently a hold for me, but the situation remains pretty fluid among the top 10-17 QBs in my rankings.
The backfield is similar for me. I'm not all in or all out on D'Andre Swift (RB25), Khalil Herbert (RB49), or Roschon Johnson (RB53). All I do know is that it would be foolish (yes, a strong opinion given my lack of a strong opinion) to go all in on just one Chicago RB. Swift is coming off the biggest workload of his pre-professional / professional career, netting 282 total touches (regular season and playoffs). Surely the Bears will spread the ball around more than Philly did, meaning Swift might get more receptions but fewer carries. Herbert isn't going anywhere, and Johnson is a fascinating late-season lottery ticket. My tepidness is based on a concern that their fantasy production might not be consistent from week to week.
At WR, as goes Williams, so goes D.J. Moore (WR18), Keenan Allen (WR34), and rookie Rome Odunze (WR44). It's a crowded corps for a talented-yet-untested rookie, especially when adding a catch-friendly backfield and a playmaking TE to the mix. Moore has never played with a group this good, and that's not a good thing. Right now I have Allen as the best value play, but it's close all around. If these ADPs are to be believed, then Williams will almost assuredly be a top 8 fantasy QB. So in the coming weeks, I'll either move him up or move his WRs down to varying degrees.
On a side note, this is why ADPs are so telling as we prepare for fantasy drafts. As they currently stand, the market is far more bullish on Chicago WRs than on their starting QB. It doesn't add up, which is why I'm watching to see whether WRs are overvalued or Williams is undervalued.
Finally, Cole Kmet took another step forward last season and appears poised for a breakout. Except . . . a lot has obviously changed. He might be only the #5 offensive option some weeks, and possibly #6 if Williams is running the ball 5+ times a game. Kmet's TE8 ADP seems conservative until we consider how different this offense looks with Allen and Odunze. I'm fading Kmet beyond the top 10, believing he'll regress statistically due to factors beyond his control.
---
Top 400 Preseason PPR Fantasy Rankings
(Donate-What-You-Want)
(1) Venmo -- https://www.venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- https://cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) Google Pay -- https://gpay.app.goo.gl/1hxqMf
(4) PayPal -- same e-mail as always: fantasyfootballforwinners@gmail.com
Extra Advice:
fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/ff4w-subscriptions.html