Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Justin Herbert be a top-12 QB?
2. Which RB is the best value play?
3. Can Quentin Johnston rebound after a dismal rookie campaign?
4. Will Ladd McConkey be fantasy relevant?
5. Is Joshua Palmer draftable?
Last summer, I was convinced Justin Herbert would break Peyton Manning's single-season passing-yard record. Talked him up as an elite fantasy QB. Put my money where my mouth was and drafted him. The 25-year-old had averaged 287.5 passing yards per game for his career--or a 17-game average of a little under 4,900 yards. Surely 5,478 yards was doable, especially with a healthy Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler, as well as highly touted rookie Quentin Johnston.
Of course, it ended up being a disaster. Williams was knocked out for the season in Week 3, Allen dominated but missed the entire fantasy playoffs (along with Herbert), Johnston was an unmitigated disappointment, and the seemingly dependably elite / near-elite Ekeler finished 21st in RB points per game.
And now Allen, Williams, and Ekeler are gone, primarily due to an untenable salary-cap crunch. The QB-unfriendly Gus Edwards will share the backfield with the talented-yet-perpetually-injured J.K. Dobbins. Johnston will try to transition from Year 1 bust to Year 2 breakout alongside rookie Ladd McConkey, the low-ceiling Joshua Palmer, and annual reclamation projects D.J. Chark and Hayden Hurst.
So it's not surprising (it kind of is, but not really) that Herbert's QB ADP is 16. Rarely do pre-prime quarterbacks lose this much fantasy value from one year to the next. A part of me wants to believe he's a bargain. But without Williams on the field, he noticeably took a step back. And now without Allen . . . it could take several weeks for this offense to sync up. For now, I'm sadly neutral on Herbert.
As for Dobbins and Edwards, can anyone remember the last time a team's #1 and #2 RB's left to join the same team? If it works out, GM Joe Hortiz will look like a genius. If not . . . well, it'll be easy to see why. Dobbins suffered yet another major injury last year (torn Achilles) and might be the league's most beaten-down 25-year-old RB in history. So much talent, and also a longshot to be fantasy relevant for even half a season. The 29-year-old Edwards just earned the biggest workload of his career while average a yard less per carry than his career mark.
The problem is that you could hedge by drafting both and *still* whiff if/when both guys break down. And to be clear, Dobbins still isn't assured a roster spot as tries to find the burst that might no longer be there. So should we target rookie Kimani Vidal? The easy answer is "yes," and I've got him slightly ahead of his RB69 ADP. But all this might change by August, and that fluidity is keeping me on the sidelines.
Through the air, the market has ranked Palmer (WR58 ADP) ahead of Johnston (WR63). McConkey is at WR51, which seems about right at the moment. But Palmer better than Johnston? At minimum, I'm all in on (to the extent I can be in this offense) a minor Johnston rebound. And we shouldn't be surprised if he finishes as L.A.'s #1 fantasy WR. I'm investing in Johnston at this price and fading Palmer.
At tight end, Hayden Hurst and Donald Parham might cancel each other out. And if Will Dissly shows up . . . at this stage, there's no point pontificating on which TE might break through. None are draftable, and if the Chargers somehow are competitive by mid-October, this team might be buyers before the trade deadline. Several teams have terrific TE depth. L.A.'s #1 TE in 2024 might not even be on their current roster.
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