Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Jayden Daniels quickly become fantasy relevant?
2. Can Brian Robinson Jr. be a top-30 RB?
3. How washed up is Austin Ekeler?
4. Can Terry McLaurin be a top-30 WR?
5. Will Jahan Dotson return to his rookie form--or better?
It's hard to articulate how desperate Washington is to re-claim its past glory. A little more than a generation ago, during a 10-year stretch led initially by a still-green head coach, this franchise went 15-4 in the playoffs while securing three Super Bowl titles. Two of those championship wins came against John Elway and Jim Kelly.
But remarkably, unlike most NFL dynasties (if we can call their decade-long success a "dynasty") Washington won their titles with three different quarterbacks, only one of whom (Joe Theismann) was objectively a franchise-elevating QB. The fact is, Washington hasn't had many franchise-elevating QBs. In the first 20 seasons after their last Super Bowl win in 1991, they started 21 different quarterbacks, including guys they *thought* or seriously hoped would become mainstays--like first-round draft picks Patrick Ramsey and Jason Campbell. They experimented with former #1 overall pick Jeff George. The much-hyped Donovan McNabb experiment was a minor disaster.
Robert Griffin III appeared to be the answer in 2012. Back-up plan Kirk Cousins wasn't paid what he thought he deserved (and in hindsight, certainly did deserve) and left chaos in his wake. The Commanders haven't had a winning record since he departed six years ago, during which time they've cycled through another 12 starting quarterbacks.
All of this context is important for fantasy purposes. Jayden Daniels isn't merely one of many young QBs in this league. He's the culmination of every ill-timed injury, misplayed contract negotiation, and wasted draft pick this franchise has endured these past 32 seasons. He's a former Heisman Trophy winner with NFL-ready dual-threat abilities. I believe after this year, the Bears will wish they'd drafted him instead of Caleb Williams. Daniels is a great bet to beat his QB13 ADP. For now, I've got him just inside the top 12. But if he looks the part in August, I'll probably push him into the top 8.
One X factor impacting Daniels' fantasy fortunes is Austin Ekeler, whose elite after-the-catch playmaking elevated the aged Philip Rivers and the ascending Justin Herbert. In many respects, Ekeler appeared to regress dramatically last year, including posting a career-low 3.5 YPC. But he also endured a career-low 1.8 yards per carry before-first-contact, and he enjoyed efficient usage through the air, including his best broken-tackle rate since 2019.
So I'm not counting out the 29-year-old veteran, and in fact I've got him ranked ahead of Brian Robinson Jr., despite the latter's better market ADP. Robinson hasn't been very efficient in his first two NFL campaigns and probably will lose catches to the (likely) more dynamic Ekeler. I'm also concerned that Robinson won't get the goal-line usage fantasy managers would otherwise hope for. Daniels ran for 21 scores in two seasons at LSU. Ekeler's floor is pretty secure. Robinson probably will be more TD-dependent.
Meanwhile, we should expect plenty of work for Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, while Luke McCaffrey is a wait-and-see flyer whose value should pop if one of the big guys gets hurt. McLaurin has a right-sized WR33 ADP. My biggest question is how much Daniels will throw. Last year, Sam Howell led the league with 612 pass attempts, with McLaurin netting 132 looks (22%). I'm expecting around 500-525 throws for Daniels. If McLaurin's ADP drops into the high 30's, I'll be all in.
As for Dotson, it's easy to forget that before his letdown last year, he was a respectable WR42 in points per game in 2022. That was his rookie campaign. He was catching passes from guys who no longer have starting jobs (Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke). Now, a rebounding Ekeler and a run-friendly Daniels probably will cap Dotson's ceiling. But his WR60 ADP seems ridiculous low, as it assumes he'll be even worse than he was last year. Invest heavily in Dotson.
And with the Logan Thomas era over, rookie Ben Sinnott (TE26 ADP) could be in for a long and at least moderately successful career. Drafted #53 overall--probably a little too early given his questionable ceiling--he's facing minimal competition from 33-year-old Zach Ertz. Let's face it: if Ertz beats him out in camp, then Sinnott might never be the answer. But for now, he joins a long list of intriguing "undraftable" fantasy tight ends.
The one intangible for Sinnott is his surrounding talent. Daniels, Ekeler, McLaurin, and Dotson should stretch defenses in various ways. We should expect the most fluid Washington offense in more than a decade. There's room for Sinnott to find his spots and serve as a reliable chain-mover. Let's see how he looks later this summer.
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