Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Derrick Henry be a reliable near-elite RB?
2. Are Keaton Mitchell and/or Justice Hill draftable in most leagues?
3. Is Zay Flowers a top-25 WR?
4. Can Rashod Bateman finally make good on his 2021 draft-day potential?
5. Is Devontez Walker draftable?
I underestimated Lamar Jackson last summer, mostly because of his recent injury history. His per-game averages have been somewhere between near-elite and uber-elite since his 2019 breakout. Four missed games in 2021 and another five in 2022 couldn't be wholly ignored. So I focused elsewhere and paid the price. Jackson returned to full-time fantasy greatness.
Should we be concerned about his mileage? He's already #3 in all-time QB carries and is on pace to break Cam Newton's record before age 30. Last season he netted 5.5 yard per carry -- his lowest mark since 2018. He's almost reached the "How long can he keep this up?" point of his career.
But not quite, which is why his QB4 ADP is both reasonable and a slight buying opportunity. While the arrival of goal-line-friendly Derrick Henry might scare some managers away, keep in mind that Baltimore had 21 RB touchdowns last season, which was fourth-most in the league. Jackson has never been overly dependent on rushing scores. As long as he's still in the prime of his career, he'll be as elite as his body allows.
For Henry -- one of this century's greatest running backs -- it's one more chance to claim a Super Bowl title. After leading the league in carries four of the last five seasons, he's a bizarre combination of safe and risky. Playing in the best offense he's ever seen, Henry should continue delivering weekly must-start numbers. His RB8 ADP might reflect the fact that he was last year's RB8. I've got him at RB10. Plenty of volume and scoring opportunities mixed with (possibly) some game management to keep him intact for the postseason.
I'm holding off on making any reasonable predictions about the rest of the backfield. We'll eventually learn whether Keaton Mitchell starts the season on the PUP list, which would keep him out at least four games. Justice Hill on the whole has been good all these years, but his career 4.6 yards per carry is deceptive. In nine games with 8+ carries, he's averaged only 3.5 YPC. At their current costs, I'd rather draft Mitchell (RB65 ADP) over Hill (RB72 ADP). And if Mitchell is sidelined to start the season, I'd still rather draft Mitchell (presumably later than his current ADP) and stash him on IR.
Through the air, Rashod Bateman is the x-factor. The former first-rounder is only 24. Aside from co-alpha receivers Zay Flowers (WR25 ADP) and Mark Andrews (TE3 ADP), there's no clear competition. Some of you might justifiably argue that rookie Devontez Walker (WR84 ADP) will make noise. Others could point to the potentially ascending Isaiah Likely (TE22 ADP). All reasonable, and I agree with the market's assessment of Andrews and Likely. But Bateman has a path to become the #5 playmaking option behind Jackson, Henry, Flowers, and Andrews. As long as this offense keeps clicking, that should place him comfortably ahead of his WR77 ADP.
And can Flowers continue his ascent? Something's holding me back. Well, not just "something." This remains a run-first offense. We should bank on Jackson and Henry (assuming full health) combining for around 400 carries. Baltimore was #1 in rushing attempts last year and are poised to do it again. We're not going to see Cee-Dee-Lamb-like numbers from Flowers, because realistically he won't come close to 160+ targets. And his scoring output is a little misleading, since four of his five TDs came with Andrews inactive.
I want to push him into the top 25 and reach for him a half round or even a round early. There's room to grow. And yet, he's in a system that caps his ceiling. So he's a tentative fade.
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