Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Kyler Murray be a reliable top-10 QB?
2. Is Trey Benson more valuable than James Conner?
3. Will Marvin Harrison, Jr. be a weekly fantasy starter?
4. Will any other WRs finish in the top 45?
5. Is Trey McBride a top-5 TE?
"[Kyler Murray's] size doesn’t matter if you believe the NFL’s longstanding hesitation about sub-6-foot quarterbacks is bunk. But I believe that hesitation has had merit. Plenty of short QBs who shined in college have faced difficulty adjusting their game at the professional level. In fact, it’s hard to identify any QB 5’10” or under who shined at the professional level (one notable exception: Doug Flutie’s USFL career, which reinforces the point). I’m also concerned that Murray’s aggressive style of play could make him more injury prone than the average quarterback. . . ."
That was the first thing I ever wrote about Murray almost exactly five years, as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner was poised to begin a phenomenal NFL career. Talent had nothing to do with it. The issue was whether his frame and approach would diminish and/or cut short his seemingly can't-miss label.
Based on his contract, Arizona is all in on their franchise QB for at least four more seasons. There's still time for him to enjoy a few career years, surrounded by a youthful corps of solid-to-amazing playmakers. But he missed three games in 2021, six in 2022, and then nine last year. He's been sacked on 6.2% of passing plays, which is right around the league average. At his size, "league average" is not encouraging.
Dynasty managers should read the writing on the wall. While he might play some of his best football these next 2-3 years, mobile QBs tend to plummet by their early 30's. In other words, he has a pretty small window to stay healthy and thrive. I'd be cautious about his QB7 ADP and would happily package for market value in dynasty.
On the ground, James Conner has proven me wrong two years in a row. The 29-year-old is coming off a campaign when he did the near-unthinkable: dominating with high efficiency despite operating in a sub-par offense that usually played from behind. Now rookie Trey Benson will push him for the lead-back role--maybe not in Week 1, but probably at some point, particularly if the Cards throw in the towel by December. Conner will be a free agent after this season. Benson should get all the run he can handle by the fantasy playoffs as this franchise assesses whether he can be "the guy" heading into 2025. The rookie is my preferred value play.
Meanwhile, Marvin Harrison Jr. commands much of the hype in this transforming offense. The 2022 days of DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and Zach Ertz are long gone. Harrison will be a long-term fantasy pillar as long as Murray stays on the field (i.e. as long as Desmond Ridder isn't forced to take over). Murray's injury history is the only reason I'm merely lukewarm about Harrison at his overall 14 ADP.
Can any other Arizona WR make waves? Probably not, though Michael Wilson is ridiculously undervalued at his WR76 ADP. He or the 29-year-old Zay Jones will serve as the #2, and Greg Dortch is the only other semi-serious competition for meaningful targets. My money's on Wilson to be, at minimum, a serviceable bye-week streamer, making him a later-round draft steal. In very deep leagues, the veteran Jones is a reasonable bench stash in the event Harrison or Wilson gets hurt.
And why am I down on Trey McBride after being relatively bullish last summer, when I ranked him 86 spots ahead of his ADP? Because the market has over-compensated for his breakout 2023 campaign, when he averaged 8.5 targets in his final 10 outings. For context, that's more than Travis Kelce has averaged these past three years.
Conner missed two of those 10 games. Wilson missed four. Brown missed three and didn't see a target in a fourth. McBride became the centerpiece of the passing attack because of talent, and because of a frequent lack of healthy talent around him. He's both incredible and overvalued at his TE3 ADP.
---
Top 400 Preseason PPR Fantasy Rankings:
(Donate-What-You-Want)
(1) Venmo -- https://www.venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) PayPal -- same e-mail as always: fantasyfootballforwinners@gmail.com
Premium Advisory Services:
fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/ff4w-subscriptions.html