Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Jared Goff a top-14 QB?
2. Is Jahmyr Gibbs safely elite?
3. Will David Montgomery remain a weekly fantasy starter?
4. Can Jameson Williams finally be a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Will Sam LaPorta replicate (or even improve on) his dominant rookie campaign?
I was all in on the Lions last summer, believing they were a legit Super Bowl contender, and that their core playmakers were moderately-to-severely undervalued in fantasy. As subscribers know--or can still refer to on the 2023 spreadsheet--I ranked Jared Goff #96 overall (compared to an overall-130 ADP), Amon-Ra St. Brown 12th (20 ADP), Jahmyr Gibbs 25th (32 ADP), and Jameson Williams . . . well, that was a bad miss.
But my bullishness also extended to Sam LaPorta, placing him inside my top 12 TEs with an overall-114 ranking compared to a 157 ADP. For some of you, that turned into fantasy gold. And if you went all in on Detroit at cost, you would've had the makings of a fantasy juggernaut.
So some of what I'm about to write might surprise you. I'm still confident in this team and its fantasy implications. However, the market's excitement has gone overboard on at least one important guy.
First, Goff continues to earn little respect. His QB15 ADP assumes a massive regression. Another top-10 campaign seems reasonable, though for now I've got him at #13, going a round-and-a-half ahead of his overall ADP. That should be good enough to snag him if you decide to wait on quarterback while stockpiling other assets in the first 8-9 rounds.
No surprises with Gibbs (RB4 ADP) or David Montgomery (RB20 ADP). The market recognizes the shifting balance of power while still honoring Montgomery's steady contributions in a TD-friendly offense. It also reminds me a little (only a little) of the Denver hedge I mistakenly made two years ago, when I drafted Javonte Williams and then Melvin Gordon. The thought was if one got hurt, the other would dominate.
Maybe that experience still haunts me. (Of course it does.) But interested in your thoughts on drafting Gibbs in the first round and pairing him with Montgomery around the sixth. Would you get your money's worth if one got hurt? Conversely, can we get more assured value than Montgomery in the sixth?
The team's WR corps is actually really interesting. St. Brown (WR5 ADP) is a no-brainer. The overachieving Kalif Raymond (WR100 ADP) and possibly underachieving Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR122 ADP) will battle for a mostly irrelevant #3 role. Detroit has the league's fifth-most cap space; I'm expecting them to be buyers before the trade deadline, and another impact WR might be in the cards.
That leaves the enigmatic Jameson Williams. Plenty of first-round receivers have been NFL busts. It rarely seems likely until after the fact. A healthy Williams has no excuses in 2024. Either he helps elevate this unit, or . . . well there's always next year. He's only 23 years old. But I'm comfortable investing at or a little before his WR48 ADP. The 64 targets vacated by Josh Reynolds matter. At his best, Williams will hit 90-100 targets. At worst, he'll be more boom-bust. Either way, his upside is worth the risk.
Finally, LaPorta. One of my favorite TE bargains last summer. It was the rare time the "Well, the QB has to throw it to someone" philosophy made sense. LaPorta wasn't just any rookie. He was an NFL-ready playmaker primed to serve as a top-4 or top-5 (depending on Williams) offensive option in a top-heavy system. Never expected him to dominate, but he was an almost universally ignored must-draft TE.
Now the pendulum's swung too far in his direction. His overall-24 ADP screams fade -- not because he isn't talented, but because there are five or six TEs who could realistically finish in the top two. It's similar with aging TE1 Travis Kelce. Do you pass on someone like Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams, Drake London, or Chris Olave in the second round to secure a seemingly elite tight end? Or do you wait a couple rounds to get Mark Andrews, or even longer to pick Kyle Pitts, and in the meantime stack your roster with terrific RBs/WRs and maybe an elite QB?
There's no right way to play it. There's only *your* way. When I'm drafting, I'm letting an opponent take LaPorta early in the hopes I can land comparable TE production (and much better value) later on.
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