Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Dak Prescott a top-6 QB?
2. Which RB will produce the most?
3. Can Brandin Cooks be a streamer?
4. Is Jalen Tolbert draftable?
5. Can Jake Ferguson finish in the top 8?
In the last three seasons, Dallas has been #1 in scoring twice and #4 the other time. While much of the resulting fantasy love has been consolidated among 2-3 players (as it usually happens), sometimes streamers have emerged from seemingly out of nowhere.
So I'm kicking off this rundown with a player who I believe will go from undraftable to must-roster: Jalen Tolbert. Why is his WR ADP down at 87? There are no compelling reasons, or at least I can't find any. The almost 31-year-old Brandin Cooks (WR58 ADP) stands in the way. If Cooks holds onto the #2 role, then Tolbert's realistic floor will be around WR65. And if Tolbert leapfrogs the veteran, then we're looking at the top 40.
For perspective, Cooks was the overall WR38 last year on 81 targets. His yards-after-catch per reception have plummeted the last few years. His past semi-elusiveness is gone (only one broken tackle these past two seasons). He's increasingly becoming boom-bust. Dallas needs more in a #2. Michael Gallup's gone. CeeDee Lamb probably won't exceed last year's 181 targets. Barring a miserable preseason, I'm banking on Tolbert to hit 80+ targets and do no worse than the top 60. His overall ADP is 208. I've got him at 111, 30 spots ahead of Cooks. We'll see what happens.
Lamb (WR1 ADP) is clear-cut. As subscribers might remember (but probably not), last summer I ranked him #4 overall despite an overall-13 ADP. His ascension to eliteness made sense, and as long as he and Dak Prescott remain healthy, he's one of the surest bets in fantasy.
Speaking of Dak, let's take a moment to appreciate how underrated he is in fantasy. In 2019 he was the QB3 in points per game. In 2020 he was #1 with a record-pacing 27.1 points per game before getting knocked out for the season. In 2021 he was the QB8. After a letdown in 2022, he returned to form last year as the QB5. His preseason ADPs from 2019 to 2023 were 17, 3, 6, 11, and 10. The market hasn't given him enough credit, possibly because of his / his team's postseason disappointments, and possibly for other reasons. Who knows. But something isn't connecting.
Currently his ADP is QB8, with an overall-74 ranking. On my board he's the QB5 with an overall-47 ranking. Enough said.
Dallas knew what they were doing when they let Dalton Schultz walk. Jake Ferguson was #2 on the team with 102 targets last season, posting an impressive 71-761-5 receiving line. Notably, his snap share went from good to great starting in Week 6. He averaged 4.7 targets in his first seven contests, jumping to 6.9 in his other 10 outings. I believe that last 60%-65% of the season is more indicative of how he'll perform this year. His TE9 / overall-83 ADP presents a buying opportunity. I'm snagging him a round early.
And then there's the backfield. Somehow Zeke Elliott is back atop the depth chart after two consecutive ugly campaigns on the ground. Sure, he became a dump-off king in New England, thanks to an atrocious and unimaginative offense that permitted defenses to cede the short game to the diminished veteran. That's harsher than I normally am on this page. But misleading stats can crush managers' spirits. Zeke (RB36 ADP) is my RB51. Rico Dowdle (RB48 ADP) is my RB40. Wouldn't be shocked if the Cowboys add another running back in September, if not earlier. This team is built to reach the playoffs and *maybe* make noise. A sub-par backfield led by a post-prime 29-year-old isn't the answer.
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