Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is C.J. Stroud elite?
2. Can Joe Mixon be a top-16 RB?
3. Are Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs top-20 WRs?
4. Is Tank Dell a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Will Dalton Schultz finish in the top 12?
Several times last season, I conflated the name of C.J. Stroud with former Texans QB Matt Schaub, referring to the rookie as "Matt Stroud." Needless to say, after tallying one of the best rookie QB campaigns in history, "C.J. Stroud" is now permanently etched on my brain, and presumably the brains of fantasy managers everywhere.
The #2 pick in the 2023 draft had the third-highest rookie QB rating ever, owning a 4,108-23-5 receiving line in only 15 games. Nico Collins missed one of Stroud's starts. Dalton Schultz missed 2 1/2. Tank Dell missed four. Forced to step up, journeyman Noah Brown had the first two 100-yard games of his career.
Stroud helped bring out the best in his receivers, and now he gets yet another incredible asset: Stefon Diggs. So why does he own a QB6 ADP? Maybe because he was "only" the QB9 in points per game. The market is wary of bumping him too high. I'm not. There's strong 40-TD potential in an offense built to score 500+ points. He's my QB3, with an overall-40 ranking compared to an overall-73 ADP.
So that must mean I'm also all in on his wideouts. Well, that's more complicated. It's a little strange that the market views him as the QB6, but Collins (WR13), Diggs (WR18), and even Dell (WR26) are viewed as essentially weekly must-start options. Justin Herbert from 2021 is a good example. He posted a 5,014-38-15 passing line, finishing as the overall QB2. At WR, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams finished at #'s 11 and 12, respectively. If the next two WRs' production were combined into one WR, that player would've been the WR29.
So at first glance, that pretty much lines up with Houston's core WRs. Stroud surely can finish in the top 3 with that kind of collective output.
But Herbert threw it 672 time. Stroud last year attempted only 499 passes, which is around the league average. Maybe he'll reach 550? That'll be more than enough to give him a great shot at eliteness. But his receivers won't be fed the way the market thinks they will, especially with a high-volume tight end on the field.
Assuming Dell is good to go Week 1, Collins becomes the biggest bust candidate; he's my WR19. Diggs (WR21) is priced about right). Dell (WR33) is a fade. All in all, a great collection of fantasy assets. But I think Stroud would need to have a 400+ point fantasy season to keep all three of these guys at or above their ADPs.
As for Dalton Schultz, what a great signing last year. His TE14 ADP assumes he'll be a tertiary option. I'm not buying it. He should finish inside the top 12.
The backfield makes me nervous. Joe Mixon (RB12 ADP) is my RB18. Now 28 years old, he's as volume- and TD-dependent as ever. Only one season above 4.1 yards per carry. His floor remains terrific as long as he's the bell cow, which seems clear at this point. But I don't believe he'll finish in the top 10. And if the forgotten Dameon Pierce makes noise in August, I'll probably push him comfortably ahead of his RB58 ADP. The same goes for the recently signed Cam Akers, though that seems like a deep longshot. The handcuff job is Pierce's to lose.
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