Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Baker Mayfield a top 20 QB?
2. Is Rachaad White a safe bet to crack the top 16?
3. Will Mike Evans continue playing at the same high level?
4. Can Chris Godwin push Evans as the team's most productive WR?
5. Are any other receivers draftable?
Heading into last season, Tampa Bay had the league's fourth-worst Super Bowl odds. Baker Mayfield was running the offense in the post-Tom-Brady era, and that was enough for most bettors.
Mayfield, of course, is a former #1 overall pick. He's a very good quarterback who frequently struggled in Cleveland due to issues he couldn't overcome and issues others couldn't overcome. It was a bad fit that only got worse. At times last year he looked like a great quarterback.
What I'm about to write is not intended to flatly diminish his achievements. But as we assess fantasy values, context is important.
Jameis Winston had career years throwing to Mike Evans and, eventually, Chris Godwin. Brady lit it up for two years throwing to that tandem. Three of Brady's seven highest-yardage seasons came in a Bucs uniform, often leaning on Evans and Godwin. Ryan Fitzpatrick posted impressive yardage and TD totals spot-starting for this team . . . thanks in part to Evans and Godwin. Mike Glennon was his best statistically (on a per-game basis) in 2014, when Evans was a rookie.
At what point do we credit Tampa Bay's exceptionally talented wideouts for elevating their quarterbacks more than their quarterbacks have elevated them?
So I'm betting on Mayfield at his QB22 ADP -- primarily because I'm betting on Evans and Godwin to get it done once again. Evans is reasonably valued at his WR17 ADP, while Godwin (WR35 ADP) is a bargain. This trio forms a strong fantasy nucleus for Superflex managers willing to go all in on an offense that doesn't need Mayfield to play "better" to still be very effective.
The backfield, however, is concerning. Rachaad White's RB15 ADP might seem like a bargain considering he was the overall RB4 last year. But I wouldn't reach for him even at that "reduced" price. He's coming off a 368-touch campaign (including the playoffs) after topping out at 225 in college. He remains woefully inefficient, with poor broken-tackle and yards-after-first-contact rates.
His top-20 RB status is based on the theory that he'll remain the bell cow. And that's actually a pretty good theory. There's not much competition, as Sean Tucker and veteran Chase Edmonds aren't poised to take over . . . ever. That leaves rookie Bucky Irving, who's priced about right at his RB54 ADP, though that could change. Irving is a fantastic pass-catcher. If White loses receptions to the rookie, then the former could fall outside the top 20, while Irving could push into the top 50 or even 45. We'll probably know more in the next 4-5 weeks.
Are any wideouts not named Mike or Chris worth drafting? Barring a serious injury, there's not much hope. Tampa Bay might have reached too early (we'll see) for third-rounder Jalen McMillan, who's best suited in the slot, where Godwin lined up for 37% of his targets last season. Trey Palmer probably has just as good a shot at netting the Bucs' third-most WR yards. Both tertiary options are outside the top 80 WRs for ADP. There's not much more to say.
Finally, the tight end situation is borderline interesting. Cade Otton has the #1 spot all to himself. At only 25 years old, the former fourth-rounder upped his fantasy points per game by just over a point in 2023 vs. 2022. There's more room to grow, especially with such a top-heavy WR corps. I like Otton a round ahead of his overall-176 ADP. Very deep leaguers have nothing to lose, because his floor isn't much lower than his TE21 ADP.
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