Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is a Tua Tagovailoa breakout coming?
2. Can De'Von Achane dominate again . . . and stay healthy?
3. Is Raheem Mostert a safe weekly streamer?
4. Will Jaylen Wright carve out a fantasy-relevant role?
5. Are any receivers besides Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle draftable?
I don't hear much hedging about the Dolphins. Most people are either all in or unconvinced. Either Tua Tagovailoa -- who led the NFL in passing yards last year -- is a franchise-elevating QB headed toward an MVP-like season, or he's a massive beneficiary of an offense well-suited for a game manager.
And that last part might be completely unfair. It also doesn't matter in fantasy land. When you draft a quarterback who throws to one of the league's best receiving duos, you're going to get points. Enjoy it. You deserve it.
Still, it's fascinating to analyze in July what this team might look like in October. Tyreek Hill was #4 in yards-after-the-catch last year. He and Jaylen Waddle were top 10 the year before. The backfield is primed for chunk yards on the ground and through the air. If everyone's healthy and clicking, Tua should crack 5,000 yards and 30 scores, making him a bizarrely huge steal at his QB16 ADP.
But things could begin to fall apart if even one key player gets hurt. Waddle missed the last 2 1/2 games last season, when Tua averaged only 12.7 fantasy points. The game before Waddle got hurt, Hill was sidelined, leading to 13 fantasy points for Tua in a run-heavy game plan.
Miami's added more offensive talent to help offset these risks, and that (among other reasons) is why I'm ranking Tua comfortably ahead of his ADP. Trying not to over-think it. The pieces are there. Managers simply need to hope most guys stay healthy most of the time, which is something we deal with regardless of our roster.
The backfield is harder to figure out. I'm high on De'Von Achane out of necessity -- because what he did last season boggles the mind. But his RB7 ADP and overall-24 ADP are too steep for a guy who's operating (at least for now) in a committee. 7.8 yards per carry is not a baseline. It's insanity. Now, Miami's roster is designed to force most defenses to choose the best of a bad situation. Most D's can't contain Hill, Waddle, and an efficient RB corps. Achane was a beneficiary, which is why he averaged 4.7 yards before-first-contact. For perspective, CMC led all starting RBs with a 3.1 mark. Since 2019, Chase Edmonds (3.6) and Raheem Mostert (3.5) have notched the best single-season efforts. Achane likely will be great again, but not to the extent the market anticipates.
The ageless Mostert (RB28 ADP) is reasonably priced, while rookie Jaylen Wright (RB49 ADP) is a potentially huge bargain. If Achane weren't in the picture, Wright could be a top-28 RB in this offense while splitting touches with Mostert. Instead, the 21-year-old is a must-stash as Miami assesses whether he's too good to remain on the sidelines. Finally, assuming Jeff Wilson remains on the team, he'll be one of the most game-ready #4 RBs we've seen in a long time, though he's more valuable as trade bait to an RB-desperate playoff contender.
The WR corps is clear-cut and confusing, which I understand makes no sense. Hill (WR2 ADP) and Waddle (WR15 ADP) are priced the way they're supposed to be, though I have the 30-year-old Hill down at WR4. The rest of this receiving corps is fascinating. If you're all in on massive numbers for Tua, then I'd suggest going all in on a secondary wideout like rookie Malik Washington (WR93 ADP) or Odell Beckham Jr. (WR110 ADP). I have both tagged as small bargains ahead of August and expect one will pop before September.
As for tight end, Jonnu Smith is somehow only 28 years old. His ADP is TE23, and he's one overall ADP spot behind Isaiah Likely and four ahead of Khalil Herbert. That doesn't make sense to me. Maybe Smith will surprise. But in very deep leagues, there are dozens of players I'd rather draft with my final pick.
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