Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Jalen Hurts safely elite?
2. Can managers trust Saquon Barkley as a top-10 RB?
3. Will A.J. Brown crack the top 6?
4. Is DeVonta Smith a top-16 WR?
5. Will Dallas Goedert finish in the top 10?
Jalen Hurts led all fantasy QBs in 2022 with 25.2 points per game. It was only his second full season at the helm. Philly yielded the ninth-fewest points per game, which was a little ironic. Last year the Eagles surrendered the third-*most* points per game (25.2), and yet Hurts "regressed" to his 2021 form, netting 21.0 fantasy points per game.
His floor seems pretty secure given the team's current playmakers, anchoring a capable passing attack that seems oh-so-close to another explosion. The arrival of Saquon Barkley should mean (when he's healthy) a chain-moving running game with pass-catching prowess.
The soon-to-be 26-year-old Hurts is poised for a rebound. The Brian Johnson OC experiment didn't work. Kellen Moore steps in after OC'ing an injury-plagued and slightly talent-reduced Chargers offense in 2023. Previously he OC'd the high-flying Cowboys offense. There are almost certainly better days ahead for Philadelphia, and I'm all in on Hurts as my overall QB1, valuing him more than a round ahead of his overall-43 ADP.
Barkley . . . now there's a dilemma. Maybe some of you are confident he'll deliver. Others might be wary. I'm caught in the middle, too nervous to place him outside the top 10 RBs, but also not comfortable matching his RB6 ADP. On a per-game basis, sure. But he's a good bet to miss at least two games, maybe at least three. His yards-per-carry since 2020 stands at 4.01. By nearly every advanced metric, he's a lesser version of his 2018-2019 self. He's also averaged 333 touches in each of the last two seasons. I expect him to top out at 275 this year.
Rookie Will Shipley (RB66 ADP) probably would share work with veteran Kenneth Gainwell (RB74 ADP) if Barkley went down. At least one of these guys needs to be rostered in case they're thrust into a 1A (12+ touches) role. Too early to know which one.
At wideout, is A.J. Brown still the alpha? Probably, but not definitely. While his WR6 ADP makes sense, DeVonta Smith (WR19 ADP) is a fantastic buy. When this offense cooked two years ago, Smith was the overall WR9. Last year he was . . . the WR19. So that explains his ADP, which obviously explains nothing. Smith is one of the best top-20 WR bargains, period.
Can we get even remotely excited about rookies Johnny Wilson or Ainias Smith, or even Parris Campbell? The Eagles haven't had a track record recently for showcasing #3 WRs. Campbell's experience might win the day, though it probably won't matter.
And at tight end, Dallas Goedert is facing the pre-twilight of his career. Probably 2-3 more good/great campaigns. His current contract runs for two more seasons, at which point he'll be 31. While never a big TD threat, and despite being his team's #5 offensive option, the key is that the drop-off to #6 is huge. Goedert should remain a 5-6 target option, and as one of the league's best after-the-catch TEs, he'll get his points. Although I don't trust his ceiling, he's one of the best TE12 ADP guys in a long, long time.
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