Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Deshaun Watson reclaim any of his past glory?
2. How bullish should managers be about drafting Nick Chubb and/or Jerome Ford?
3. Is Amari Cooper a top-24 WR?
4. Can any other WRs finish in the top 50?
5. Can David Njoku build off of his huge late-season run?
My fantasy views on Deshaun Watson have been consistently and unabashedly harsh since Cleveland made one of the biggest gambles in modern NFL history. Absent a Super Bowl title, will it have been worth it? There's been almost no room for error with this five-year wager, and after two years it's been about as bad as expected.
Last summer he was my 133rd-ranked player (QB16) compared to an overall-82 ADP (QB9). The older he gets, the less likely he'll be to run, which early in his career was a meaningful part of his game. And as I've shared before, run-friendly quarterbacks usually begin steep declines no later than 31 or 32 years old. Russell Wilson (33-34) was a rare exception.
Watson will turn 29 in September. The Browns have given him as many playmakers as they can afford. He's been only middling while battling injuries. They might not have reached the playoffs last year if he'd stayed healthy. This franchise has the misfortune (though they did this to themselves) of being good enough to miss out on drafting transformational franchise players, but not good enough to make a deep postseason run.
Will that change in 2024? Probably not. Will Watson return to greatness? Probably not. His market value finally has caught up with reality. He's a half-decent flier at his QB20 ADP price tag, but there are plenty of top 18-26 guys who could do better.
The backfield will remain a mystery until we get final word on Nick Chubb's (RB42 ADP) Week 1 availability. I can't write anything you don't already know. Jerome Ford (RB35 ADP) is a fantastic insurance policy. Drafting both at cost makes a lot of sense. If Chubb isn't ready, you're getting a bell cow in Ford on the cheap. If Chubb is ready, then you're playing the percentages that one of those two guys will help you win your league. And in deep-bench leagues, D'Onta Foreman (RB63 ADP) needs to be stashed on the chance Chubb misses at least the first four games, so you're not in a Ford-or-bust situation.
At wideout, Amari Cooper is a legend, sort of. How many "great" receivers net a career-high in yards (1,250) in their ninth NFL season? And in only 15 games? And with his lowest catch rate since 2017? And yet, while his WR29 ADP is reasonable, it's also a bit ambitious. He had 51.5 fantasy points in his final game. Yes, it counts. It's also not easily replicable. He didn't exactly light it up with Watson under center and now must contend with a slightly improved receiving corps.
Fantasy-wise, it's subtraction by addition. With Jerry Jeudy (WR59 ADP) and presumably Elijah Moore (WR97 ADP) or Cedric Tillman (WR100 ADP) competing for looks each week, not to mention David Njoku (TE11 ADP), my question is how Cooper can sustain last year's output. If Moore and Tillman flop, it'll streamline the offense. But for now, I'm lukewarm about Cleveland's alpha receiver, as well as Jeudy.
As for Njoku, I was down on him last summer on the assumption Watson would start most games and perform only adequately. But playing with Joe Flacco, Njoku had one of the most electric stretches in recent TE history, posting a 28-373-4 line in his final four contests. As a football fan, I'm excited to see what he can do this year. As a fantasy manager, I'd happily take him at TE11 but not much earlier.
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