Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Matthew Stafford offer streaming value?
2. Is Kyren Williams a near-elite RB?
3. Is Blake Corum a top-40 RB?
4. Will Puka Nacua dominate again?
5. Can Cooper Kupp improve on 2023's relative letdown?
I gave up on the Rams last summer. Didn't trust Cooper Kupp. Didn't trust Matthew Stafford. Thought Puka Nacua would be much better than his WR101 ADP, but still . . . never imagined he'd dominate. The backfield featured a severely diminished Cam Akers (incredibly, 29 yards on 22 carries in his only start) and emergency journeyman Royce Freeman.
Oh, and there was 2022 fifth-rounder Kyren Williams, who I inexplicably ignored despite tagging Akers as a major bust on my draft board, and despite not even listing Freeman on my top 300. Why? Because I didn't believe in this offense, and I mistakenly thought Akers and Freeman and Williams would continually mix in, leading to single-digit touches for each most weeks and few scoring opportunities.
Had I look more closely, I would have noticed that 16 of Williams' 27 scores at Notre Dame came inside the 5-yard line. Most of the others came outside the 20, with several going for 50+. By no means did that make him a sure thing. An ugly 4.65 speed surely knocked him down at the 2022 NFL draft. But he was a proven finisher at the college level and had a "leaves everything on the field" reputation. He was a workhorse in the full sense of the word. And that carried over into a memorable campaign that probably helped make some of you winners.
Now he's the RB8 for all the right reasons, and presumed handcuff Blake Corum (RB38 ADP) also is priced right. In Williams you're getting one of the few RBs with almost guaranteed (assuming good health) 250+ touches. And . . . for obvious reasons, if you draft Williams, the rookie Corum is a must-grab a round or two early (the eighth or ninth round in 12-team leagues). Ronnie Rivers is the distant #3. In other words, there's absolutely no competition behind Corum.
Their market values assume, to some degree, that Matthew Stafford & company will continue to move the ball fluidly through the air, though the addition of Jimmy Garoppolo -- while not exactly inspiring -- arguably puts this offense on firmer footing than last year's backup tandem of Carson Wentz and Brett Rypien. A pretty solid offensive line also helps. After enduring a career-high 8.7% sack rate (based on the percentage of pass plays) in 2022, Stafford and his line (and a bolstered receiving corps) kept him largely out of trouble last season, when he enjoyed his second-lowest sack rate in 10 years. For context, his lowest rate during this stretch came during the Rams' recent title run.
So yeah, quarterback protection obviously matters, and fantasy managers can feel its impact. Stafford owns a QB19 ADP, and I have no problem with it. On a great day, he can creep into the top 12. On balance, however, his days as a big producer probably are over. L.A.'s offense is balanced by design. Before joining the Rams three years ago, Stafford's RBs mostly consisted of Kerryon Johnson, Ameer Abdullah, Joique Bell, Mikel Leshoure, Jahvid Best, and Kevin Smith. Things didn't get much better in Los Angeles until last season. Stafford isn't needed as much as he once was, and that will show up in fantasy box scores.
Through the air, Nacua and Kupp are the #12 and #24 WRs on my board, respectively. Their corresponding WR ADPs are 7 and 16. What's my problem? It's not because of Demarcus Robinson, and Tutu Atwell will remain a second-round bust until/unless he proves otherwise. Instead, let's zoom in on the 12 games Nacua and Kupp played together. Nacua averaged 15.7 points. When Kupp was sidelined, the rookie averaged 21.9.
Taken together, it's a 17.6 average, which gave him the sixth-most WR fantasy points per game. So it's no coincidence that his WR ADP is 7. And that's why it's based on a faulty assumption. Instead of viewing Nacua's season as a whole, we should begin with projections based on games with Kupp active. Through that lens, as well as Stafford's low season-long ceiling, I'm fading Nacua unless his ADP drops a round.
And at tight end, Tyler Higbee is an acceptable IR stash in deep leagues. He might not return until October. But in a pretty top-heavy offense, the veteran only has to hold off Colby Parkinson and rookie Davis Allen. Higbee's TE46 ADP means most online drafters won't come across his name. But keep him in mind -- again, for deep leagues with IR spots -- because he can still be a decent bye-week streamer.
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